…Trump’s coming trade war will drive more supply chains out of China, opening opportunities for select others to fill the gaps…
This was originally published by the Asia Times.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House brings with it the high likelihood of renewed tariffs, a cornerstone of his “America First” agenda.
While his critics see protectionism, others see an opportunity—an aggressive strategy to rebalance global trade and fortify American manufacturing. But as in his first term, Trump’s tariffs would likely ripple far beyond US borders, creating fresh opportunities for countries ready to step up and fill the gaps.
For Vietnam, India, Mexico, Malaysia and Thailand, Trump’s approach could be a game-changer. These nations are well-positioned to benefit from the global realignment that would come with new tariffs, as companies accelerate diversification efforts and shift supply chains away from China.
If Trump builds on his prior successes with a more refined strategy, these nations could ride the wave of economic transformation to new heights.
1. Vietnam: Trade war winner
Few countries capitalized on Trump’s 2018-19 trade war with China as effectively as Vietnam. As American tariffs hit Chinese goods, companies scrambled to relocate manufacturing, and Vietnam quickly became a top destination. Its combination of low labor costs, strategic proximity to China, and strong trade agreements with the US made it an ideal alternative.
If Trump reintroduces tariffs, Vietnam could again attract manufacturers seeking to bypass higher costs in China. From electronics to textiles, its export base is well-prepared to meet American demand. Trump’s proven willingness to strike tailored trade deals could further enhance Vietnam’s status as a preferred partner.
2. India: a strategic ally
Trump’s first term saw a strengthening of US-India ties, driven by a shared desire to counterbalance China. His administration deepened trade relations and laid the groundwork for defense partnerships, positioning India as a critical ally in the Indo-Pacific.
India’s growing manufacturing base and emphasis on self-reliance—championed through its “Make in India” initiative—align perfectly with Trump’s focus on reducing US dependence on China. Trump’s preference for bilateral deals could enable India to secure trade terms that bolster its emerging sectors, such as electronics and pharmaceuticals.
Under Trump, India could thrive not only economically but strategically, further integrating into US-led efforts to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific.
3. Mexico: the nearshoring powerhouse
Mexico was one of the biggest beneficiaries of Trump’s first-term tariffs. His renegotiation of NAFTA into the USMCA provided a stable framework for trade while encouraging American companies to bring supply chains closer to home. Mexico’s geographic proximity and cost-competitive labor market gave it a natural advantage.
If Trump renews tariffs on Chinese imports, Mexico’s role as a nearshoring hub will only grow. Industries such as automotive manufacturing and consumer goods are likely to expand further, benefiting from streamlined logistics and lower transportation costs.
Trump’s border policies, though controversial, are unlikely to overshadow the economic interdependence between the US and Mexico.
4. Malaysia: a high-tech partner
Malaysia is uniquely positioned to benefit from Trump’s emphasis on cutting-edge industries. Its expertise in semiconductors and electronics manufacturing makes it a key player in the global tech supply chain.
During Trump’s first term and continuing under Biden, Malaysia became a focal point for companies looking to reduce dependence on Chinese suppliers in sensitive industries. If Trump reinstates tariffs on Chinese technology products, Malaysia’s advanced manufacturing sector could see a surge in demand.
Trump’s administration could further incentivize US investment in Malaysia, solidifying it as a trusted partner.
5. Thailand: the versatile contender
Thailand’s diverse economy and strong manufacturing base make it another likely winner. Its strengths in automotive production, electronics, and agricultural exports align well with US market needs.
During Trump’s first term, Thailand benefited indirectly from the trade war as companies sought alternatives to China. A second round of tariffs could deepen its role in supply chain diversification, especially if Trump pursues bilateral trade agreements. Thailand’s ability to balance ties with both the US and China will be crucial in maximizing these opportunities.
Why Trump’s approach could work
Trump’s critics often paint his trade policies as disruptive, but the evidence suggests they have spurred long-term adjustments that benefit global trade dynamics. By forcing a reevaluation of China’s centrality to supply chains, Trump accelerated shifts that many now see as necessary for economic resilience.
For countries like Vietnam, India and Mexico, Trump’s unapologetic focus on tariffs created openings that might never have emerged under more conventional leadership. His potential return offers these nations a chance to deepen their ties with the US, attract investment, and secure a bigger slice of global trade.
The balancing act
Of course, the risks remain. Trump’s transactional style and focus on immediate wins could create tensions, particularly if trade imbalances or tariff disputes resurface. But these five countries have shown they can adapt to volatility, leveraging Trump’s bold moves to their advantage.
If Trump learns from the lessons of his first term, refining his strategy to focus on sustained partnerships, his return could usher in a new era of economic collaboration. For Vietnam, India, Mexico, Malaysia and Thailand, the opportunity is immense.
As Trump reshapes global trade, these nations are well-positioned to rise alongside America’s renewed economic ambitions.
