Tag: France

The French recently re-elected Emmanuel Macron for a second term as president. It is not clear that most French like Macron but we do know that a majority of French favored Macron over his 2nd round runoff opponent, Marine Le Pen. The election itself garnered more attention than many French probably could have expected. Portuguese, Spanish, and German leaders (Antonio Costa, Pedro Sanchez and Olaf Scholz respectively) thought it necessary to pen a letter in support of Macron. The Macron victory should not overshadow the economic realities underpinning the relative success of the Le Pen campaign.

Vaccines gave hope going into 2021…fast forward a year later and the omicron variant is not providing the same confidence, especially with much of the globe still not fully vaccinated and / or without a booster shot. Such a reality has created renewed economic uncertainty. As we enter 2022, there are several countries whose economic trends will provide some insight into the global economy going forward…

France is “America’s oldest friend and Ally” with a relationship “built upon [..] shared commitment to the same values – democracy, human rights, the rule of law, security, and prosperity” according to the State Department. The debacle of last month regarding submarine sales by the U.S. to Australia and a subsequent voiding of a French contract with Australia raises questions about the French-American alliance. Yet an assessment of the other two options in Europe – the U.K. and Germany – suggests France and the U.S. are made for each other…

France’s discussion on the transformation of state loans to grants signifies a greater problem for European economies. Many governments underwrote their economies with increased liquidity either through loans or deferment of debt. But the wall of insolvency cannot be avoided…

The U.S. will have to engage European countries on where their relations are on January 20, 2021 (inauguration day) versus where U.S. relations were with each country back in 2016. And, as expected, relations with some countries are warmer than with others after the past four years. With that in mind, Biden will have to assess U.S. relations with the three biggest European economies (UK, France, and Germany) and push those relationships forward as a signal to other European countries on what a Biden administration represents to (and expects from) the larger European region…