Tag: Economy

2024 is the year of elections…for most voters, “It’s the economy, stupid” may reign supreme…these are 10 bellwether economies to watch in 2024…

The U.S. Congress should consider switching from a federal debt ceiling as a nominal value to one fixed as a percentage of GDP. This debt ceiling should, on the one hand, be high enough that the government cannot reasonably cross it, but punitive enough that it disincentivizes profligate spending. This will save the U.S. from the annual political theater that occurs around debt ceiling talks and focus the discussion on the federal budget (and potentially taking revenue and spending decisions to actually control the deficit)…

There are some simple life lessons in business: It is hard to be liked by all people and it is hard to be liked all the time.  Leaders at central banks and investment firms know this very well… today’s economic crisis will likely end with a simple reminder of these lessons…

The tech war between countries is well-established – the U.S. and China being the least coy about this battle. There is another (more subtle) war happening…the battle for talent is quietly turning into a more global competition….

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is quietly doing her share to help Italy and greater Europe with little applause…

Everyone knows economists have a poor track record of predicting recessions. Yet, it is hard to ignore the growing consensus among economists that the combination of inflation and interest rate hikes alongside tempered Chinese demand and US economic uncertainty could be the perfect storm for a global recession.

Those same economists, however, disagree on the depth and length of a potential recession as well as the underlying indicators that will answer their questions. Thus, instead of agreeing on a list of indicators, let’s focus on some countries that could be bellwethers for changing headwinds in 2023…

The western political discussion on Ukraine remains largely focused on military support. But, as the war continues, foreign ministers and finance ministers across Europe are appropriately starting to discuss the financial cost of the war today and in the future when the international community must help rebuild the country…

Europe is facing an energy crisis that threatens its ability to phase out coal by 2030…

To think many people predicted 2021 couldn’t get any worse than 2020. Little did they know that 2021 would bring delta, omicron, and inflation with a lot of messiness in-between. The result is 2022 will be volatile with a covid overhang and inflation coupled with aggressive interest rate hikes (by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other similar authorities across the globe) to combat the inflation – as a result, 2022 may present more distress than 2021. These are the markets distressed investors will, as a result, be watching in 2022.

Vaccines gave hope going into 2021…fast forward a year later and the omicron variant is not providing the same confidence, especially with much of the globe still not fully vaccinated and / or without a booster shot. Such a reality has created renewed economic uncertainty. As we enter 2022, there are several countries whose economic trends will provide some insight into the global economy going forward…