The Musings Of A Politics Junkie & Closet Economist

Covid-19 is the introduction and closing to many personal and business conversations these days. It is also the starting point for most economic discussions across the globe. Discussions on the African continent are no different. But, in the context of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the Covid-19 pandemic may be a distraction from the realities of deeper economic problems…

As the assembly to write a new Chilean constitution is elected and Chileans ponder the new social contract for the country, many in the socialist camp should be more honest with their followers: Chile cannot be a Latin American version of a Nordic country, but it can be a better version of itself…

France’s discussion on the transformation of state loans to grants signifies a greater problem for European economies. Many governments underwrote their economies with increased liquidity either through loans or deferment of debt. But the wall of insolvency cannot be avoided…

Lebanon has long swept its challenges under the rug and celebrated its successes. But the explosion back on August 4th in the port area of Beirut—the capital of Lebanon—, in a figurative and physical sense, unveiled a tomb of hidden treasures and misfortunes of years past. Yet the tragedy of the blast was it not only took so many lives, but its revelations of treasures and misfortunes were not exactly new…

The distribution of vaccines is changing the economic outlook in 2021 with most politicians and investors forecasting a continued recovery. Yet the political and economic risks that preceded the covid-19 pandemic remain alongside the lockdown measures necessary to combat the virus. The year will be turbulent for some countries as public confidence and investor sentiment vacillates with optimism and skepticism on vaccine acceptance rates and economic output numbers. Several countries are likely to be bellwethers for the markets, or at least, provide some directional insight on the global economy’s recovery…

There are many elections in Africa in 2021, but they won’t all be competitive. Some of the countries on the calendar, like Benin, Chad, and the Republic of the Congo, have very strongly entrenched incumbents. The 2021 election calendar in Africa, in comparison to 2020, however, will have many international observers from afar and maybe on the ground, as in Libya…

The month of November was positive. Markets trended upward with justification in some situations and bet on pure hope in other situations. December may provide a reversion to the mean. That said, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and Ukraine will be three markets to watch…

Africa, in the eyes of some political analysts, has been an after-thought for Washington these last four years. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing; it speaks to the political and economic stability that dominates most of the 54 countries on the continent. That said, Biden will encounter a few major issues that may not test bipartisanship but will surely require more than an after-thought approach…

A Biden administration should be expected to be a partner to Latin America due to Biden’s prior enthusiasm and interest in the region. That said, increased diplomatic communication and engagement does not necessarily suggest a major shift in policy…