The Musings Of A Politics Junkie & Closet Economist

The distribution of vaccines is changing the economic outlook in 2021 with most politicians and investors forecasting a continued recovery. Yet the political and economic risks that preceded the covid-19 pandemic remain alongside the lockdown measures necessary to combat the virus. The year will be turbulent for some countries as public confidence and investor sentiment vacillates with optimism and skepticism on vaccine acceptance rates and economic output numbers. Several countries are likely to be bellwethers for the markets, or at least, provide some directional insight on the global economy’s recovery…

There are many elections in Africa in 2021, but they won’t all be competitive. Some of the countries on the calendar, like Benin, Chad, and the Republic of the Congo, have very strongly entrenched incumbents. The 2021 election calendar in Africa, in comparison to 2020, however, will have many international observers from afar and maybe on the ground, as in Libya…

The month of November was positive. Markets trended upward with justification in some situations and bet on pure hope in other situations. December may provide a reversion to the mean. That said, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and Ukraine will be three markets to watch…

Africa, in the eyes of some political analysts, has been an after-thought for Washington these last four years. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing; it speaks to the political and economic stability that dominates most of the 54 countries on the continent. That said, Biden will encounter a few major issues that may not test bipartisanship but will surely require more than an after-thought approach…

A Biden administration should be expected to be a partner to Latin America due to Biden’s prior enthusiasm and interest in the region. That said, increased diplomatic communication and engagement does not necessarily suggest a major shift in policy…

The U.S. will have to engage European countries on where their relations are on January 20, 2021 (inauguration day) versus where U.S. relations were with each country back in 2016. And, as expected, relations with some countries are warmer than with others after the past four years. With that in mind, Biden will have to assess U.S. relations with the three biggest European economies (UK, France, and Germany) and push those relationships forward as a signal to other European countries on what a Biden administration represents to (and expects from) the larger European region…

As the second wave of cases hits Europe, including Italy, there is not much convincing required on the seriousness of the virus. The same cannot be said about the growing challenges in the Italian economy. Debt is flowing into an economy that already has its share of bad loans in the financial ecosystem but there is little concern. It is the covid-19 pandemic thus why worry about a European financial crisis, right?

Argentines are struggling with covid-19 and a three-year recession. The government currently completed a $65 billion restructuring and now wants to tax its way out of a recession…

Can Nigeria’s President employ the strategy of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince in privatising a state oil corporation?