Category: Middle East / Asia

Vaccines gave hope going into 2021…fast forward a year later and the omicron variant is not providing the same confidence, especially with much of the globe still not fully vaccinated and / or without a booster shot. Such a reality has created renewed economic uncertainty. As we enter 2022, there are several countries whose economic trends will provide some insight into the global economy going forward…

Modi may have appeared brash in his approach and his words at COP26…but that cannot overshadow the hard truths raised by his speech…

The world is chaotic: Covid-19, economic uncertainty, and war. Amid the signs of chaos, it is said that the obvious signs of danger or opportunity can be missed. But no one is missing the power grab being made by Tunisia’s President Kaïs Saïed, following the recent dismissals of ministers, including Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi, and Minister of Economy, Finance and Investment Support Ali Kooli, and the suspension of parliament. Saïed also recently announced plans to strip legislators of immunity and assume power of the state prosecutor’s office. But is this danger or opportunity? The most obvious comparison to this situation is Lebanon…but to what extent is Tunisia like Lebanon?

On a global scale, people are angry at the current health and economic environment with protests becoming increasingly prevalent. The question for political analysts and investors is whether the anger and unrest boils to an unsustainable level for some countries….

Oil recently touched above $70 and continues to hover above $60 today. The uptick is a welcome breath of fresh air into the Middle East (financial) ecosystem. The new cash inflow is and will continue to allow the regional states to underwrite new financing in their banking sectors and evade the 2009-esque fallout as banks today effectively bridge finance regional corporates to 2022 (…or potentially 2023)…

Lebanon has long swept its challenges under the rug and celebrated its successes. But the explosion back on August 4th in the port area of Beirut—the capital of Lebanon—, in a figurative and physical sense, unveiled a tomb of hidden treasures and misfortunes of years past. Yet the tragedy of the blast was it not only took so many lives, but its revelations of treasures and misfortunes were not exactly new…

The distribution of vaccines is changing the economic outlook in 2021 with most politicians and investors forecasting a continued recovery. Yet the political and economic risks that preceded the covid-19 pandemic remain alongside the lockdown measures necessary to combat the virus. The year will be turbulent for some countries as public confidence and investor sentiment vacillates with optimism and skepticism on vaccine acceptance rates and economic output numbers. Several countries are likely to be bellwethers for the markets, or at least, provide some directional insight on the global economy’s recovery…

The month of November was positive. Markets trended upward with justification in some situations and bet on pure hope in other situations. December may provide a reversion to the mean. That said, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and Ukraine will be three markets to watch…

Middle East sovereign debt levels are rising, but so what? The question of whether the debt levels are sustainable is hard to answer…