Category: Latin America

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is in full swing with candidates talking economic policy but partially skirting round foreign policy challenges. The foreign policy debate has been limited with most commentary focused on whether the policy will be more “arrogant” or “predictable”, neither of which are informative descriptions for a candidate or directionally insightful as a strategy. The next U.S. president will face several key issues on day 1 and, while temperament can be part of the test, there is a question of policy answers and details…

2024 is the year of elections…for most voters, “It’s the economy, stupid” may reign supreme…these are 10 bellwether economies to watch in 2024…

Recent legislation in the U.S. and Europe (and a war in Ukraine) is accelerating energy transition. Yet, the overhaul of policy requires significant change in other aspects of the economic system and individual livelihoods – in particular, the limited resources of metals and rare earth elements, water and land become significantly more important.

Everyone knows economists have a poor track record of predicting recessions. Yet, it is hard to ignore the growing consensus among economists that the combination of inflation and interest rate hikes alongside tempered Chinese demand and US economic uncertainty could be the perfect storm for a global recession.

Those same economists, however, disagree on the depth and length of a potential recession as well as the underlying indicators that will answer their questions. Thus, instead of agreeing on a list of indicators, let’s focus on some countries that could be bellwethers for changing headwinds in 2023…

Qatar’s bid to host this year’s World Cup was always going to be controversial: the summers are too hot; there are not enough stadiums, hotels, and other necessary facilities; the country does not have a football culture. Still, the question of money and its influence in football should not overshadow the globalization of the sport. This World Cup is likely the prologue to more star Arab football players and maybe another Arab country hosting it…

To think many people predicted 2021 couldn’t get any worse than 2020. Little did they know that 2021 would bring delta, omicron, and inflation with a lot of messiness in-between. The result is 2022 will be volatile with a covid overhang and inflation coupled with aggressive interest rate hikes (by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other similar authorities across the globe) to combat the inflation – as a result, 2022 may present more distress than 2021. These are the markets distressed investors will, as a result, be watching in 2022.

Vaccines gave hope going into 2021…fast forward a year later and the omicron variant is not providing the same confidence, especially with much of the globe still not fully vaccinated and / or without a booster shot. Such a reality has created renewed economic uncertainty. As we enter 2022, there are several countries whose economic trends will provide some insight into the global economy going forward…

On a global scale, people are angry at the current health and economic environment with protests becoming increasingly prevalent. The question for political analysts and investors is whether the anger and unrest boils to an unsustainable level for some countries….

Brazil is full of opportunities…if you ignore the populist rhetoric that will accompany the October 2022 elections.