Category: Africa

2024 is the year of elections…for most voters, “It’s the economy, stupid” may reign supreme…these are 10 bellwether economies to watch in 2024…

The latest sequence of events in Niger is a reminder that the war in Ukraine (and sanctions against Russia) is not about a fight for democracy…

Many are wondering whether French President Emmanuel Macron’s entanglement in the Sahel is analogous to the troubles that foreign powers have faced in Afghanistan. The Wagner Group (and Russia) will likely determine the answer…

Recent legislation in the U.S. and Europe (and a war in Ukraine) is accelerating energy transition. Yet, the overhaul of policy requires significant change in other aspects of the economic system and individual livelihoods – in particular, the limited resources of metals and rare earth elements, water and land become significantly more important.

Everyone knows economists have a poor track record of predicting recessions. Yet, it is hard to ignore the growing consensus among economists that the combination of inflation and interest rate hikes alongside tempered Chinese demand and US economic uncertainty could be the perfect storm for a global recession.

Those same economists, however, disagree on the depth and length of a potential recession as well as the underlying indicators that will answer their questions. Thus, instead of agreeing on a list of indicators, let’s focus on some countries that could be bellwethers for changing headwinds in 2023…

Africa is a big continent with 54 countries. Thus it should come as no surprise that there are many elections to watch in 2023 with many elections expected to be very competitive…

Qatar’s bid to host this year’s World Cup was always going to be controversial: the summers are too hot; there are not enough stadiums, hotels, and other necessary facilities; the country does not have a football culture. Still, the question of money and its influence in football should not overshadow the globalization of the sport. This World Cup is likely the prologue to more star Arab football players and maybe another Arab country hosting it…

President Hakainde Hichilema is creating a new playbook for African restructurings…

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is worsening a food crisis in the North African region, as Ukraine and Russia are leading exporters of agricultural products to North Africa, while also forcing countries to do a geopolitical dance to avoid picking a side, especially when the countries have military and diplomatic ties to either Russia or the US or sometimes both countries. The conflict also presents opportunities for exporters who can fill gaps in the global supply chain, in particular energy…but then again, those gaps are the result of both economic and political challenges with the political challenges never being so simple to solve.

To think many people predicted 2021 couldn’t get any worse than 2020. Little did they know that 2021 would bring delta, omicron, and inflation with a lot of messiness in-between. The result is 2022 will be volatile with a covid overhang and inflation coupled with aggressive interest rate hikes (by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other similar authorities across the globe) to combat the inflation – as a result, 2022 may present more distress than 2021. These are the markets distressed investors will, as a result, be watching in 2022.