<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/" xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/" > <channel> <title>United States – The Musings Of A Politics Junkie & Closet Economist</title> <atom:link href="https://kurtdavisjr.com/category/united-states/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" /> <link>https://kurtdavisjr.com</link> <description></description> <lastBuildDate>Sun, 19 Jan 2025 13:57:03 +0000</lastBuildDate> <language>en-US</language> <sy:updatePeriod> hourly </sy:updatePeriod> <sy:updateFrequency> 1 </sy:updateFrequency> <generator>https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.2</generator> <item> <title>Why the U.S. Needs a Sovereign Wealth Fund</title> <link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/why-the-u-s-needs-a-sovereign-wealth-fund-chips-actinflationreductionact-swf/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=why-the-u-s-needs-a-sovereign-wealth-fund-chips-actinflationreductionact-swf</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 10 Jan 2025 13:55:49 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[United States]]></category> <category><![CDATA[CHIPS Act]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Inflation Reduction Act]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Saudi Arabia]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Singapore]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=889</guid> <description><![CDATA[The United States spends trillions of dollars annually on military and foreign aid. Yet, it lacks the financial tools necessary to secure its economic future. While the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act provide welcome investments in clean energy and semiconductors, they fail to address the more significant, long-term need for sustained and strategic industrial policy. The United States needs a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) — a national investment vehicle capable of turning tax dollars into high-yield returns that can reshape the economy for decades to come...]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="300" height="300" src="http://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/SWF.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-890" style="width:578px;height:578px" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/SWF.jpg 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/SWF-150x150.jpg 150w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></figure></div> <p></p> <p><strong><em>This originally appeared in <a href="https://dcjournal.com/why-the-u-s-needs-a-sovereign-wealth-fund/" data-type="link" data-id="https://dcjournal.com/israels-expanding-war-and-the-echoes-of-the-american-surge-strategy/">DCJournal.com</a></em></strong></p> <p>The United States spends trillions of dollars annually on military and foreign aid. Yet, it lacks the financial tools necessary to secure its economic future. While the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act provide welcome investments in clean energy and semiconductors, they fail to address the more significant, long-term need for sustained and strategic industrial policy. The United States needs a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) — a national investment vehicle capable of turning tax dollars into high-yield returns that can reshape the economy for decades to come.</p> <p>Countries like Norway, Singapore and Saudi Arabia have used SWFs to turn resource wealth into economic resilience. Though the United States does not have a similar natural resource windfall to fund such a vehicle, we have something even more potent: a $6 trillion annual budget. By reallocating even a fraction of the nearly $900 billion spent annually on military and homeland security, we could build an SWF to drive growth in industries like semiconductors, clean energy and manufacturing.</p> <p>This is not about replacing the IRA or CHIPS Act; it’s about going beyond them.</p> <p>The IRA and CHIPS Act are legislative milestones, but they are time-limited and narrowly focused. They aim to solve specific problems, such as spurring domestic semiconductor production or incentivizing clean energy adoption. However, they rely heavily on subsidies, tax credits and grants — mechanisms that encourage private-sector investment but don’t give the government a direct financial stake in the returns.</p> <p>An SWF would flip this dynamic. By acting as an investor rather than a subsidy provider, the United States could ensure that taxpayer dollars catalyze economic growth and also generate financial returns. These returns could be reinvested to fund future initiatives or offset national debt. Moreover, an SWF offers flexibility, something the IRA and CHIPS Act cannot. As industries evolve and new opportunities emerge, a SWF can pivot its investments to stay ahead of global trends.</p> <p>This approach is not unprecedented. Agencies like the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) have shown how targeted government investment can lead to transformative innovations like the internet and GPS. However, DARPA’s mission is focused on early research and development, primarily for military purposes. It cannot scale these innovations into entire industries. An SWF could fill that gap by funding infrastructure, commercialization and large-scale production — essential steps to secure long-term economic strength.</p> <p>Funding an SWF doesn’t require gutting the military budget. Redirecting 5 percent to 10 percent of the $800 billion defense budget — $40 billion to $80 billion annually — could seed a robust SWF. This would still leave the United States with the largest military budget in the world while unlocking significant resources for economic investments.</p> <p>Some areas of military spending are ripe for reallocation. Take the F-35 fighter jet program, which has ballooned to $1.7 trillion in lifecycle costs. Or the maintenance of Cold War-era nuclear weapons systems increasingly disconnected from modern security threats. Even reducing administrative inefficiencies — the Pentagon’s overhead costs exceed $100 billion annually — could free up billions.</p> <p>The potential returns on these investments are staggering. Consider the semiconductor industry, where the CHIPS Act is trying to close a $50 billion funding gap. Or clean energy, where large-scale investments in battery technology, wind farms and green hydrogen could ensure energy independence while creating high-paying jobs. An SWF could fund these initiatives not as a one-time expenditure but as part of a sustainable investment strategy, ensuring that these efforts yield long-term economic and financial benefits.</p> <p>The idea of an SWF may seem politically ambitious, but it holds bipartisan appeal. Democrats could support an SWF to bolster green energy, manufacturing and high-tech industries — aligning with climate and labor priorities. For Republicans, the emphasis on generating financial returns and reducing dependence on foreign suppliers aligns with fiscal conservatism and national security.</p> <p>An SWF also reframes the conversation about national security. For too long, the United States has equated security with military spending. In a world increasingly defined by economic competition, strategic industries like semiconductors and renewable energy are as critical to our security as tanks and fighter jets.</p> <p>Skeptics might argue that countries with SWFs are poor compared to the United States due to their smaller size and dependence on natural resources. However, the United States can look to other examples. Canada’s Alberta Investment Management Corp. and Australia’s Future Fund demonstrate how governments in complex, resource-rich economies can successfully manage investment vehicles to secure long-term prosperity.</p> <p>Of course, the United States faces unique obstacles. Its federal system makes coordinated economic planning more difficult. High national debt limits the appetite for new spending. These are not insurmountable challenges. A modest, phased approach — beginning with a small reallocation of military funds — could test the concept and build political momentum.</p> <p>The stakes could not be higher. The global economy is entering competition over clean energy, semiconductors and emerging technologies like artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions threaten the stability of supply chains. The United States has the resources to lead, but only if it uses them strategically.</p> <p>A sovereign wealth fund offers the best way to secure America’s economic future. By transforming short-term expenditures into long-term investments, it ensures that taxpayer dollars not only meet today’s challenges but also prepare us for tomorrow’s opportunities. The time to act is now.</p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <p></p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>The Nations Likely To Win, Not Lose, From Trump’s Tariffs</title> <link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/the-nations-likely-to-win-no-lose-from-trumps-tariffs/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nations-likely-to-win-no-lose-from-trumps-tariffs</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sat, 23 Nov 2024 10:19:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Latin America]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Middle East / Asia]]></category> <category><![CDATA[United States]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Donald Trump]]></category> <category><![CDATA[India]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Malaysia]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Mexico]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Tariffs]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Trade]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Vietnam]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=773</guid> <description><![CDATA[Trump’s coming trade war will drive more supply chains out of China, opening opportunities for select others to fill the gaps...]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="1200" height="729" src="http://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-Tariffs.webp" alt="" class="wp-image-875" style="width:810px;height:auto" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-Tariffs.webp 1200w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-Tariffs-300x182.webp 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-Tariffs-1024x622.webp 1024w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-Tariffs-768x467.webp 768w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-Tariffs-1130x686.webp 1130w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-Tariffs-750x456.webp 750w" sizes="(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A clothing boutique in downtown Hanoi. (Photo Credit: Asia Times Files / AFP / Hoang Dinh Nam)</figcaption></figure></div> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <h4 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-center"><strong style="font-style: italic;"><strong style="font-style: italic;">…</strong><em>Trump’s coming trade war will drive more supply chains out of China, opening opportunities for select others to fill the gaps…</em></strong></h4> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <p><strong><em>This was originally published by the </em></strong><a href="https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/the-nations-likely-to-win-not-lose-from-trumps-tariffs/" data-type="link" data-id="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4306629-saudi-arabia-wants-the-indian-premier-league-why-is-there-no-discussion-of-sportswashing/">Asia Times.</a></p> <p>Donald Trump’s return to the White House brings with it the high likelihood of renewed tariffs, a cornerstone of his “America First” agenda.</p> <p>While his critics see <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trump-favors-huge-new-tariffs-how-do-they-work">protectionism</a>, others see an opportunity—an aggressive strategy to rebalance global trade and fortify American manufacturing. But as in his first term, Trump’s tariffs would likely <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/trump-trade-wins-asia-loses-as-risk-factors-surge/">ripple far beyond</a> US borders, creating fresh opportunities for countries ready to step up and fill the gaps.</p> <p>For Vietnam, India, Mexico, Malaysia and Thailand, Trump’s <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2024/10/trump-win-potential-puts-asia-on-a-tariff-ied-edge/">approach</a> could be a game-changer. These nations are well-positioned to benefit from the global realignment that would come with <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/once-again-imports-do-not-subtract">new tariffs</a>, as companies accelerate diversification efforts and shift supply chains away from China.</p> <p>If Trump builds on his prior successes with a more refined strategy, these nations could ride the wave of <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/time-world-pivot-away-us-economy/">economic transformation</a> to new heights.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>1. Vietnam: Trade war winner</strong></h2> <p>Few countries capitalized on Trump’s 2018-19 trade war with China as effectively as Vietnam. As American tariffs hit Chinese goods, companies scrambled to relocate manufacturing, and Vietnam quickly became a top destination. Its combination of low labor costs, strategic proximity to China, and strong trade agreements with the US made it an ideal alternative.</p> <p>If Trump reintroduces tariffs, Vietnam could again attract manufacturers seeking to bypass <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/trump-tariffs-threaten-to-torpedo-the-yuan/">higher costs</a> in China. From electronics to textiles, its export base is well-prepared to meet American demand. Trump’s proven willingness to strike tailored trade deals could further enhance Vietnam’s status as a preferred partner.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>2. India: a strategic ally</strong></h2> <p>Trump’s first term saw a strengthening of US-India ties, driven by a shared desire to counterbalance China. His administration deepened trade relations and laid the groundwork for defense partnerships, positioning India as a critical ally in the Indo-Pacific.</p> <p>India’s growing manufacturing base and emphasis on self-reliance—championed through its “Make in India” initiative—align perfectly with Trump’s focus on reducing US dependence on China. Trump’s preference for bilateral deals could enable India to secure trade terms that bolster its emerging sectors, such as electronics and pharmaceuticals.</p> <p>Under Trump, India could thrive not only economically but strategically, further integrating into US-led efforts to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>3. Mexico: the nearshoring powerhouse</strong></h2> <p>Mexico was one of the biggest beneficiaries of Trump’s first-term tariffs. His renegotiation of NAFTA into the USMCA provided a stable framework for trade while encouraging American companies to bring supply chains closer to home. Mexico’s geographic proximity and cost-competitive labor market gave it a natural advantage.</p> <p>If Trump renews tariffs on Chinese imports, Mexico’s role as a nearshoring hub will only grow. Industries such as automotive manufacturing and consumer goods are likely to expand further, benefiting from streamlined logistics and lower transportation costs.</p> <p>Trump’s border policies, though controversial, are unlikely to overshadow the economic interdependence between the US and Mexico.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>4. Malaysia: a high-tech partner</strong></h2> <p>Malaysia is uniquely positioned to benefit from Trump’s emphasis on cutting-edge industries. Its expertise in semiconductors and electronics manufacturing makes it a key player in the global tech supply chain.</p> <p>During Trump’s first term and continuing under Biden, Malaysia became a focal point for companies looking to reduce dependence on Chinese suppliers in sensitive industries. If Trump reinstates tariffs on Chinese technology products, Malaysia’s advanced manufacturing sector could see a surge in demand.</p> <p>Trump’s administration could further incentivize US investment in Malaysia, solidifying it as a trusted partner.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>5. Thailand: the versatile contender</strong></h2> <p>Thailand’s diverse economy and strong manufacturing base make it another likely winner. Its strengths in automotive production, electronics, and agricultural exports align well with US market needs.</p> <p>During Trump’s first term, Thailand benefited indirectly from the trade war as companies sought alternatives to China. A second round of tariffs could deepen its role in supply chain diversification, especially if Trump pursues bilateral trade agreements. Thailand’s ability to balance ties with both the US and China will be crucial in maximizing these opportunities.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Why Trump’s approach could work</strong></h2> <p>Trump’s critics often paint his <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/note-to-trump-targeted-tariffs-can-work-broad-ones-never-do/">trade policies</a> as disruptive, but the evidence suggests they have spurred long-term adjustments that benefit global trade dynamics. By forcing a reevaluation of China’s <a href="https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa?yearlyTradeFlowSelector=flow1">centrality</a> to supply chains, Trump accelerated shifts that many now see as necessary for economic resilience.</p> <p>For countries like Vietnam, India and Mexico, Trump’s unapologetic focus on tariffs created openings that might never have emerged under more conventional leadership. His potential return offers these nations a chance to deepen their ties with the US, attract investment, and secure a bigger slice of global trade.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The balancing act</strong></h2> <p>Of course, the risks remain. Trump’s <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/trump-tariffs-as-ploy-for-making-a-big-deal-with-china/">transactional style</a> and focus on immediate wins could create tensions, particularly if trade imbalances or tariff disputes resurface. But these five countries have shown they can adapt to volatility, leveraging Trump’s bold moves to their advantage.</p> <p>If Trump <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/what-game-theory-predicts-trump-will-and-wont-do/">learns</a> from the lessons of his first term, refining his strategy to focus on sustained partnerships, his return could usher in a new era of economic collaboration. For Vietnam, India, Mexico, Malaysia and Thailand, the opportunity is immense.</p> <p>As Trump <a href="https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/chinas-1-4-trillion-debt-swap-girds-for-trump-tariffs-to-come/">reshapes</a> global trade, these nations are well-positioned to rise alongside America’s renewed economic ambitions.</p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <p></p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>Trump’s Return Signals New Opportunities for Middle East Ties</title> <link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/trumps-return-signals-new-opportunities-for-middle-east-ties-israel-iran-uae-saudi-arabia-abraham-accords/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=trumps-return-signals-new-opportunities-for-middle-east-ties-israel-iran-uae-saudi-arabia-abraham-accords</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 22 Nov 2024 16:39:51 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Middle East / Asia]]></category> <category><![CDATA[United States]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Abraham Accords]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Donald Trump]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Public Investment Fund]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Qatar]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Qatar Investment Authority]]></category> <category><![CDATA[RUssia]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Saudi Arabia]]></category> <category><![CDATA[United Arab Emirates]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=869</guid> <description><![CDATA[As Donald Trump heads back to the White House, leaders across the Middle East anticipate the revival of a pragmatic partnership centered on economic growth, security, and regional stability. Trump’s first term resonated with Gulf leaders and beyond, emphasizing results over ideology—a stark contrast to the Biden administration. His tenure’s signature accomplishments, including the Abraham Accords, a robust stance on Iran, and business-driven diplomacy, are seen as a roadmap for renewed progress in the region...]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img decoding="async" width="2560" height="1633" src="http://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-ME-scaled.webp" alt="" class="wp-image-871" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-ME-scaled.webp 2560w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-ME-300x191.webp 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-ME-1024x653.webp 1024w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-ME-768x490.webp 768w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-ME-1536x980.webp 1536w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-ME-2048x1307.webp 2048w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-ME-1130x721.webp 1130w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Trump-ME-750x479.webp 750w" sizes="(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Donald Trump (left), speaks with Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (center) in 2019 at Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan. (Photo Credit: Kim Kyung-Hoon / Reuters)</figcaption></figure></div> <p></p> <p>As Donald Trump heads back to the White House, leaders across the Middle East anticipate the revival of a pragmatic partnership centered on economic growth, security, and regional stability. Trump’s first term resonated with Gulf leaders and beyond, emphasizing results over ideology—a stark contrast to the Biden administration. His tenure’s signature accomplishments, including the Abraham Accords, a robust stance on Iran, and business-driven diplomacy, are seen as a roadmap for renewed progress in the region.</p> <p><strong>Building on the Abraham Accords</strong></p> <p>The Abraham Accords stand as one of Trump’s most consequential achievements, normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab nations, including the UAE and Bahrain. This pragmatic framework, which prioritized shared economic and security interests, fostered a historic breakthrough in Middle Eastern diplomacy. The accords have catalyzed tangible cooperation, from Israeli tech collaborations in Abu Dhabi to thriving tourism between Tel Aviv and Dubai.</p> <p>Many in the region see Trump’s return as a chance to expand this model. The ultimate prize? Saudi-Israeli normalization, which could reshape the geopolitical landscape. Regional leaders believe Trump’s approach offers the diplomatic finesse needed to overcome long-standing hurdles.</p> <p><strong>Renewed Pressure on Iran</strong></p> <p>Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran won praise from regional allies who felt the Obama-era nuclear deal emboldened Tehran. By reimposing sanctions and withdrawing from the deal, Trump signalled a clear opposition to Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its network of proxies destabilizing the region.</p> <p>Leaders in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel expect a second Trump term to bring a reinvigorated stance on Iran. With Iran reportedly ramping up its military budget, Trump’s allies anticipate a tougher, more decisive U.S. posture to counterbalance growing threats—a stark departure from what they see as Biden’s cautious engagement or, in some instances, negligent approach considering his support for the prison swap with Iran and the release of $6 billion of frozen assets deposited in a Qatari bank</p> <p><strong>Prioritizing Economic Partnerships</strong></p> <p>Trump’s foreign policy focused on mutual economic benefit, aligning seamlessly with Gulf nations’ modernization agendas, such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. His preference for direct investment over conditional aid resonated with regional leaders striving for diversified economies.</p> <p>The presence of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan at a recent UFC fight with Trump signals the warm ties Middle Eastern economic architects maintain with the former president. Moreover, developments like Microsoft’s $1.5 billion investment in UAE-based AI initiatives underscore the burgeoning opportunities Trump’s business-first diplomacy could accelerate. It is speculated that the appointment of Mohammed Al Sowaidi, recently chief investment officer for Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) in the Americas, as QIA CEO was driven by a desire to get close to Trump and the U.S.</p> <p><strong>Targeted Counterterrorism</strong></p> <p>Trump’s counterterrorism strategy emphasized precision and avoided prolonged U.S. entanglements, gaining the respect of regional partners. His administration’s actions against ISIS demonstrated that the U.S. could achieve security goals without drawn-out military campaigns. Leaders in the Gulf favor this targeted approach, which supports regional stability while respecting sovereignty.</p> <p>Trump’s “America First” policy in the region, though sometimes labelled isolationist, actually reinforced U.S. influence by focusing on core, shared objectives, aligning closely with the counterterrorism priorities of nations in the Gulf and beyond. Middle Eastern leaders expect that his return will continue this support for targeted counterterrorism efforts, which are crucial for regional stability.</p> <p><strong>A</strong> <strong>Realpolitik Over Ideology</strong></p> <p>While critics argue Trump’s policies sidelined U.S. moral authority, many Middle Eastern leaders viewed his approach as pragmatic. By focusing on shared goals and respecting regional priorities, Trump forged alliances grounded in mutual benefit rather than ideological alignment. His model of cooperation allowed nations to pursue their ambitions without external interference.</p> <p>As Trump prepares for a second term, the question is not whether Middle Eastern leaders welcome his return—they do. Nor is it whether Middle Eastern leaders support his return—many will welcome it. The challenge lies in how swiftly his administration can build on past successes to meet the region’s evolving needs. For leaders from Riyadh to Tel Aviv, Trump’s pragmatic vision offers a renewed promise of stability and growth.</p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <p></p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>The French Exodus From Africa: Has It Helped Democracy</title> <link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/the-africa-report-the-french-exodus-from-africa-has-it-helped-democracy/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-africa-report-the-french-exodus-from-africa-has-it-helped-democracy</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Sat, 02 Nov 2024 15:42:12 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category> <category><![CDATA[United States]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Burkina Faso]]></category> <category><![CDATA[France]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Guinea]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Mali]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Niger]]></category> <category><![CDATA[RUssia]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=862</guid> <description><![CDATA[Was the criticism of France’s presence in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger more about national pride than about fostering true democratic development...]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="727" height="417" src="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/French-Africa.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-863" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/French-Africa.jpg 727w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/French-Africa-300x172.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 727px) 100vw, 727px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Soldiers of the French military mission in the Sahel known as ‘Barkhane’ folding a French flag at an undisclosed military installation, amid the French military drawdown with troops leaving the last bases in Mali (Photo Credit: Handout / Etat Major des Armées / AFP)</figcaption></figure></div> <p><strong><em>This originally appeared on <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/365448/the-french-exodus-from-africa-has-it-helped-democracy/" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.theafricareport.com/364214/opinion-us-president-bidens-postponed-angola-trip-is-a-missed-opportunity/">TheAfricaReport.com</a></em></strong></p> <p>Was the criticism of France’s presence in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger more about national pride than about fostering true democratic development?</p> <p>France has faced increasing calls to withdraw its military presence from several African countries in recent years, particularly in West and Central Africa, where it has maintained a strong presence for decades.</p> <p>This movement, driven by nationalist sentiment, anti-colonial rhetoric, and political shifts across the continent, culminated in France’s strategic retreat from countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Yet, despite the hope that this withdrawal might empower local governments and democratic processes, the reality has been more complex – and in many cases, democracy has faltered rather than flourished.</p> <p>For decades, France’s involvement in Africa was often criticised as a continuation of colonial-era dominance, a network often referred to as <em>f</em><em>rançafrique</em>. Military interventions, such as those in Mali in 2013 (Operation Serval) and subsequent engagements in the Sahel under Operation Barkhane, were justified as efforts to combat jihadist insurgencies. However, these missions also served to bolster the fragile governments of countries like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.</p> <p>Critics of France’s presence claimed that these interventions, though wrapped in the language of security, propped up autocratic or weak leaders while stifling local sovereignty. As domestic opposition in Africa grew and France’s popularity waned, a wave of military coups swept across the region. These coups in Mali (2020), Guinea (2021), Burkina Faso (2022), and most recently Niger (2023), led to calls for France to depart entirely from these former colonies.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">Exodus and its impact on democracy</h2> <p>The withdrawal of French forces was heralded by many as a victory for national autonomy. However, the subsequent political developments have cast doubt on whether this exodus has indeed benefited democracy. In the power vacuums left behind, military juntas have risen, suspending constitutional rule, and replacing civilian governments with authoritarian regimes. For instance, in Mali and Burkina Faso, the coups were followed by transitional military governments that curtailed civil liberties, silenced the press and delayed the promised return to democratic elections.</p> <p>Ironically, while French military involvement was often criticised for sustaining undemocratic regimes, its departure has not ushered in the democratic renewal some had anticipated. In fact, many of the juntas now in power appear less committed to democratic ideals than the civilian governments that preceded them. This begs the question: Was the criticism of France’s presence more about national pride than about fostering true democratic development?</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">The role of Russia and other powers</h2> <p>A complicating factor has been the entry of other global players into the African arena. Russia, in particular, has taken advantage of France’s retreat, deepening its influence through both diplomatic and military channels. The Wagner Group, a private Russian military company, has established a significant presence in Mali and the Central African Republic, often with the tacit approval of local regimes. These relationships, based more on military strength than democratic principles, have raised alarms about the future of governance in the region.</p> <p>In Mali, the junta’s alignment with Russia and the departure of French forces coincided with a deteriorating security situation, with jihadist attacks continuing to plague the region. Similarly, Burkina Faso and Niger have struggled to regain control over vast swathes of territory. The influence of external actors like Russia, with little interest in promoting democracy, has created an environment where authoritarian rule is not only tolerated but reinforced.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">A deeper crisis of governance</h2> <p>Beyond geopolitics, the challenges to democracy in these countries also reflect deep-rooted governance issues. Corruption, weak institutions, and social inequality have long undermined the capacity of some African states to build inclusive political systems. French military support may have masked these structural problems, but its withdrawal has only exposed the fragility of state institutions.</p> <p>In many cases, the local populations that had called for an end to French involvement are now disillusioned with the military regimes that replaced them. The promise of a democratic resurgence has been replaced by a sense of uncertainty, as African nations navigate new alliances with global powers that may be less interested in democratic outcomes.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">What’s next?</h2> <p>The French exodus from Africa has not resulted in the democratic progress many had hoped for. While it has provided African nations with the opportunity to reclaim their sovereignty, it has also left them vulnerable to new forms of authoritarianism, both domestic and foreign. The rise of military juntas and the increasing influence of Russia suggest that the region’s political future may be defined by instability rather than democracy.</p> <p>The challenge moving forward will be for African countries to balance national sovereignty with the need for stable, democratic governance. Without significant internal reforms, external military interventions — whether by France, Russia, or other powers — will continue to shape the political landscape, often at the expense of democratic ideals.</p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <p></p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>Americas First?’ A Second Trump Term Could Be A Renaissance For Latin America</title> <link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/the-hill-americas-first-a-second-trump-term-could-be-a-renaissance-for-latin-america/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-hill-americas-first-a-second-trump-term-could-be-a-renaissance-for-latin-america</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Wed, 30 Oct 2024 19:33:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Latin America]]></category> <category><![CDATA[United States]]></category> <category><![CDATA[America First]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Central America]]></category> <category><![CDATA[China]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Donald Trump]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Immigration]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Monroe Doctrine]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Trade]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=858</guid> <description><![CDATA[The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House in 2025 has sparked intense discussion about the future of U.S.-Latin American relations. While critics focus on potential tensions, a closer examination reveals how Trump’s “America First” approach could catalyze a long-overdue transformation in hemispheric relations, ultimately benefiting both the U.S. and its southern neighbors...]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="960" height="540" src="http://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Trump.webp" alt="" class="wp-image-859" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Trump.webp 960w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Trump-300x169.webp 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Trump-768x432.webp 768w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Trump-750x422.webp 750w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a roundtable at the Drexelbrook Catering & Event Center, Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024, in Drexel Hill, Pa. (Photo Credit: AP Photo / Julia Demaree Nikhinson)</figcaption></figure></div> <p><strong><em>This was originally published by <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/4960690-trump-latin-america-relations/" data-type="link" data-id="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4306629-saudi-arabia-wants-the-indian-premier-league-why-is-there-no-discussion-of-sportswashing/">The Hill.</a></em></strong></p> <p>The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House in 2025 has sparked intense discussion about the <a href="https://globalamericans.org/how-will-the-u-s-election-impact-latin-america-and-the-caribbean/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">future of U.S.-Latin American relations</a>. While critics focus on potential tensions, a closer examination reveals how Trump’s “America First” approach could catalyze a long-overdue transformation in hemispheric relations, ultimately benefiting both the U.S. and its southern neighbors.</p> <p>At the heart of Trump’s Latin America strategy lies a refreshingly clear-eyed view of regional dynamics. Rather than perpetuate decades of well-intentioned but ultimately ineffective policies, Trump’s transactional approach could forge more authentic and sustainable partnerships based on mutual economic interests rather than abstract diplomatic ideals.</p> <p>Take immigration, for instance. Trump’s emphasis on border security, while controversial, could finally force a serious regional dialogue about sustainable migration policies. By pressuring Central American nations to strengthen their domestic institutions and economies, his policies could address the root causes of migration more effectively than traditional aid programs that have shown limited results.</p> <p>On trade, Trump’s bilateral deal-making strategy might actually advantage Latin American nations. Even though his critics decry the departure from multilateralism, the reality is that personalized trade agreements could better address each country’s unique economic circumstances. Trump’s business background and focus on bottom-line results could lead to more practical, targeted trade arrangements that deliver concrete benefits to both sides.</p> <p>Perhaps most significantly, Trump’s pushback against <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2024/07/04/chinas-presence-in-latin-america-has-expanded-dramatically" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">China’s growing influence in the region</a> might provide Latin American nations with unexpected leverage. Rather than simply forcing countries to choose sides, Trump’s competitive approach could spark a bidding war for Latin American partnerships, potentially resulting in better terms for regional economies. His administration would likely offer attractive alternatives to Chinese investment, creating genuine competition that benefits Latin American nations.</p> <p>Trump’s “America First” policy, contrary to conventional wisdom, could accelerate Latin America’s march toward greater autonomy. By challenging traditional diplomatic assumptions, he could push regional leaders to develop more balanced international relationships and stronger domestic institutions. This tough-love approach might be exactly what the region needs to break free from historical patterns of dependency.</p> <p>The much-discussed <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/6/19/trump-revives-monroe-doctrine-as-warning-to-china-and-russia" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">revival of the Monroe Doctrine under Trump</a> need not be seen as a return to paternalism. Instead, it could evolve into a more equitable partnership based on shared economic interests and regional security concerns. Trump’s focus on tangible results over diplomatic niceties could lead to more honest, productive relationships throughout the hemisphere.</p> <p>Critics who dismiss Trump’s approach as simplistic miss its potential to reshape regional dynamics in positive ways. His emphasis on clear expectations and measurable outcomes could replace decades of diplomatic ambiguity with more transparent, results-oriented partnerships. This clarity, though sometimes uncomfortable, might be precisely what U.S.-Latin American relations need to move forward productively.</p> <p>Latin American leaders who approach Trump pragmatically might find unexpected opportunities to advance their national interests. Rather than resisting change, they could leverage Trump’s deal-making instincts to negotiate better terms for their countries while maintaining their strategic autonomy.</p> <p>A second Trump presidency could indeed mark a turning point in U.S.-Latin American relations. While it would certainly bring significant changes, these changes might ultimately strengthen rather than weaken regional ties. By forcing both sides to reassess long-held assumptions and negotiate more practical arrangements, Trump’s approach could pave the way for a more mature, mutually beneficial relationship between the United States and its Latin American partners.</p> <p>In the end, Trump’s unorthodox style might accomplish what decades of traditional diplomacy could not — a genuine recalibration of hemispheric relations that better serves the interests of all parties involved. Sometimes, the most promising paths forward are the ones that initially appear most disruptive.</p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <p></p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>Israel’s Expanding War and the Echoes of the American ‘Surge’ Strategy</title> <link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/israels-expanding-war-and-the-echoes-of-the-american-surge-strategy-dc-journal/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=israels-expanding-war-and-the-echoes-of-the-american-surge-strategy-dc-journal</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Wed, 16 Oct 2024 02:14:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Middle East / Asia]]></category> <category><![CDATA[United States]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Afghanistan]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Hamas]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Hezbollah]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Iraq]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Lebanon]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Syria]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Yemen]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=848</guid> <description><![CDATA[Israel has dramatically escalated its military operations, extending beyond Gaza to include strikes in Lebanon, Yemen and Syria. This expansion marks a significant shift in strategy that borrows heavily from the American playbook while tailoring it to Israel’s unique geopolitical context. As the conflict intensifies, it’s crucial to examine the implications of this approach, not just for the Middle East but for global security and economic stability...]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="300" height="300" src="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/bigstock-Haifa-Israel-April-475176925-300x300-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-849" style="width:578px;height:578px" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/bigstock-Haifa-Israel-April-475176925-300x300-1.jpg 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/bigstock-Haifa-Israel-April-475176925-300x300-1-150x150.jpg 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></figure></div> <p class=""></p> <p class=""><strong><em>This originally appeared in <a href="https://dcjournal.com/israels-expanding-war-and-the-echoes-of-the-american-surge-strategy/" data-type="link" data-id="https://dcjournal.com/israels-expanding-war-and-the-echoes-of-the-american-surge-strategy/">DCJournal.com</a></em></strong></p> <p class="">In recent weeks, Israel has dramatically escalated its military operations, extending beyond Gaza to include strikes in Lebanon, Yemen and Syria. This expansion marks a significant shift in strategy that borrows heavily from the American playbook while tailoring it to Israel’s unique geopolitical context. As the conflict intensifies, it’s crucial to examine the implications of this approach, not just for the Middle East but for global security and economic stability.</p> <p class="">Israel’s campaign bears striking similarities to the U.S. “surge” strategy employed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Like the American approach, Israel aims to use overwhelming force to neutralize threats quickly and create conditions for long-term stability. However, Israel’s version is more focused and time-sensitive, reflecting the immediacy of the threats it faces.</p> <p class="">The Israeli government, still reeling from the October 7 Hamas attack, has concluded that the status quo is no longer tenable. This shift in thinking mirrors the U.S. response to 9/11 when the tolerance for terrorist safe havens evaporated overnight. But while the United States had the luxury of distance, Israel is grappling with threats on its doorstep, necessitating a more urgent and comprehensive response.</p> <p class="">Unlike the U.S. campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, Israel is not seeking a prolonged occupation or nation-building exercise. Instead, it’s pursuing a strategy of surgical precision aimed at dismantling the leadership and capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah. This approach reflects a growing weariness with the “hearts and minds” doctrine that has often proved challenging (some may say ineffective) in counterterrorism efforts.</p> <p class="">Focusing on precision and speed is not just a tactical choice but a strategic necessity. Israel understands that a drawn-out conflict could erode international support and strain its own resources. By emphasizing targeted strikes and limited ground incursions, Israel hopes to achieve its security objectives while minimizing civilian casualties and avoiding the quagmire of long-term occupation. Can surgical strikes alone create the conditions for lasting peace.</p> <p class="">At the heart of Israel’s expanded campaign is Iran. Tehran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah, coupled with its nuclear ambitions, represents an existential threat to Israel. The current offensive can be seen as an indirect confrontation with Iran aimed at weakening its proxies and deterring further aggression.</p> <p class="">However, this strategy carries significant risks. Any miscalculation could lead to direct conflict with Iran, potentially drawing in other regional powers and escalating into a wider war. The international community, particularly the United States, must tread carefully in its support for Israel, balancing the need for deterrence against the risk of uncontrolled escalation.</p> <p class="">The potential economic consequences of this conflict cannot be overstated. Any disruption to oil supplies from the Middle East could send shockwaves through the global economy. With the U.S. presidential election on the horizon, the effect on energy prices could become a pivotal issue, influencing domestic politics and international relations.</p> <p class="">Policymakers in Washington must be prepared for various scenarios, including the possibility of Israeli strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure. The most discussed target is the Kharg oil terminal, which handles 80 percent to 90 percent of oil exports, most of which are destined for China. Such an action would spike oil prices and lead to retaliatory measures that further destabilize the region and global markets.</p> <p class="">As Israel pursues this high-stakes strategy, it must maintain clear objectives and an exit strategy. The goal should be to neutralize immediate threats and create a more favorable security environment, not to become entangled in an open-ended conflict.</p> <p class="">For the United States, the challenge lies in supporting its ally while preventing further escalation. This will require deft diplomacy, leveraging relationships with other regional powers to contain the conflict and push for a sustainable resolution.</p> <p class="">The international community must also play a role in mediating the current crisis and addressing the underlying issues that fuel conflict in the region. This includes renewed efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and a comprehensive approach to curbing Iran’s destabilizing activities.</p> <p class="">Israel’s expanded war represents a calculated gamble to reshape the security landscape of the Middle East. While the strategy draws from American experiences, it’s tailored to Israel’s unique position and threats.</p> <p class="">As the situation unfolds, we must remember the lessons of past conflicts. No matter how precise, military action alone rarely solves deep-seated political and social issues. For lasting peace, Israel and its allies must couple their military strategy with robust diplomatic efforts and a clear vision for post-conflict reconstruction and governance.</p> <p class="">The echoes of American strategy in Israel’s actions are clear. Now, we must hope that Israel has learned not just from America’s initial interventions but from the complex, often painful aftermath of those conflicts. The stability of the Middle East — and perhaps the world — may depend on it.</p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <p class=""></p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>The Unfulfilled Promise Of Biden’s Foreign Policy</title> <link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/thehill-biden-foreign-policy-challenges-the-unfulfilled-promise-of-bidens-foreign-policy/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=thehill-biden-foreign-policy-challenges-the-unfulfilled-promise-of-bidens-foreign-policy</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 11 Oct 2024 17:48:00 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Latin America]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Middle East / Asia]]></category> <category><![CDATA[United States]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Afghanistan]]></category> <category><![CDATA[China]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Hamas]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Iranian Funds]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Joe Biden]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category> <category><![CDATA[President Biden]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Ukraine]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=842</guid> <description><![CDATA[President Biden entered office with a wealth of foreign policy experience and the promise to restore American leadership on the global stage. Yet, as his term nears its end, his administration’s handling of international crises raises questions about the effectiveness of his approach...]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1850" height="1231" src="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-845" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP.jpg 1850w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP-300x200.jpg 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP-1024x681.jpg 1024w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP-768x511.jpg 768w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP-1536x1022.jpg 1536w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP-1130x752.jpg 1130w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP-750x499.jpg 750w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1850px) 100vw, 1850px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">(Photo Credit: AP Photo / Rod Lamkey, Jr.)</figcaption></figure></div> <p class=""><strong><em>This was originally published by <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/4927852-biden-foreign-policy-challenges/" data-type="link" data-id="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4306629-saudi-arabia-wants-the-indian-premier-league-why-is-there-no-discussion-of-sportswashing/">The Hill.</a></em></strong></p> <p class="">President Biden entered office with a wealth of foreign policy experience and the promise to restore American leadership on the global stage. Yet, as his term nears its end, his administration’s handling of international crises raises questions about the effectiveness of his approach.</p> <p class="">While facing a complex and volatile world, Biden’s foreign policy has been marked by caution that at times borders on indecision, potentially undermining U.S. interests and global stability.</p> <p class="">The conflict in Ukraine exemplifies the administration’s struggle to balance support with risk management. While providing substantial military aid, the Biden team has also imposed restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons. This cautious approach, aimed at preventing escalation with Russia, has inadvertently prolonged the conflict.</p> <p class="">As the war enters its third year, both European allies and Ukraine have expressed frustration with what they perceive as unnecessary limitations on their tactical options. The administration’s slow-walking of critical decisions raises concerns about its ability to respond decisively to rapidly evolving situations.</p> <p class="">In the Middle East, the recent escalation of violence between Israel and Hamas presents another significant challenge. Despite extensive diplomatic efforts, the administration has struggled to negotiate hostage releases or broker lasting ceasefires (at one point promising agreements on periodic basis that failed to materialize). The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the potential for wider regional conflict underscore the limitations of the current approach.</p> <p class="">Biden’s inability to rein in the violence or effectively engage with key regional players has led to increased anti-American sentiment across the Arab world. This situation highlights the complexities of Middle Eastern politics and the need for a more comprehensive strategy.</p> <p class="">Perhaps no foreign policy challenge better illustrates the administration’s difficulties than its approach to Iran. Attempts to revive the nuclear deal have faltered, while Iran’s regional influence continues to grow. The controversial decision to unfreeze $6 billion in Iranian funds, though intended for humanitarian purposes, has been criticized for potentially empowering Iran at a critical juncture.</p> <p class="">The lack of a clear strategy to address Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its support for regional proxies remains a significant gap in the administration’s Middle East policy. This absence of a coherent approach has implications not only for regional stability but also for U.S. credibility among allies and adversaries alike.</p> <p class="">These challenges are part of a broader pattern of reactive rather than proactive policymaking. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, while ending a prolonged U.S. military engagement, raised serious questions about strategic planning and execution. Relations with China have oscillated between confrontational rhetoric issues (like Taiwan, human rights and trade) and diplomatic overtures yet have produced little meaningful change in Beijing’s behavior or its growing global influence. The administration’s attempts to counter China through alliances like the Quad and AUKUS have been slow to materialize into concrete actions.</p> <p class="">In Latin America, the administration has struggled to articulate a clear policy direction, particularly on pressing issues like migration reform and regional stability. The administration is also still debating how to address ongoing political and economic crisis in Venezuela following the disputed reelection of President Nicolas Maduro.</p> <p class="">President Biden’s extensive experience in foreign affairs was expected to be a strength of his administration. However, in practice, his cautious approach has often left the U.S. struggling to respond effectively to fast-moving global events.</p> <p class="">While some degree of prudence is necessary in international relations, excessive caution can be as detrimental as recklessness. In Ukraine, it has potentially prolonged a brutal conflict. In the Middle East, it has allowed a regional war and humanitarian crises to fester. And globally, it has created a leadership vacuum that adversaries are all too eager to fill.</p> <p class="">As we approach 2024, there is an urgent need for a reassessment of U.S. foreign policy strategies. The world faces increasingly complex challenges that demand not only experience but also adaptability and decisive action. The coming months will be crucial in determining Biden foreign policy legacy and his ability to reassert and define American leadership before the next president assumes office.</p> <p class="">In a world that continues to test the limits of diplomacy and international cooperation, the U.S. must find a balance between cautious deliberation and bold action. The administration’s foreign policy legacy — and indeed, global stability — may well depend on its ability to make this shift in the next month or so.</p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <p class=""></p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>US President Biden’s Postponed Angola Trip Is A Missed Opportunity</title> <link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/us-president-bidens-postponed-angola-trip-is-a-missed-opportunity-united-states-russia-china/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=us-president-bidens-postponed-angola-trip-is-a-missed-opportunity-united-states-russia-china</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 10 Oct 2024 17:13:26 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category> <category><![CDATA[United States]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Angola]]></category> <category><![CDATA[China]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Oil]]></category> <category><![CDATA[RUssia]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=834</guid> <description><![CDATA[President Joe Biden has postponed his trip to Luanda. With US elections in less than four weeks it is unlikely he will visit Africa as president...]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1099" height="627" src="http://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Angola-US.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-835" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Angola-US.jpg 1099w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Angola-US-300x171.jpg 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Angola-US-1024x584.jpg 1024w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Angola-US-768x438.jpg 768w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Angola-US-750x428.jpg 750w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1099px) 100vw, 1099px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Angola’s President João Lourenço with US President Joe Biden in Washington, December 2023. (Photo Credit: The White House)</figcaption></figure></div> <p class=""><strong><em>This originally appeared on <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/364214/opinion-us-president-bidens-postponed-angola-trip-is-a-missed-opportunity/" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.theafricareport.com/364214/opinion-us-president-bidens-postponed-angola-trip-is-a-missed-opportunity/">TheAfricaReport.com</a></em></strong></p> <p class="">President Joe Biden has postponed his trip to Luanda. With US elections in less than four weeks it is unlikely he will visit Africa as president.</p> <p class="">On 8 October, President Joe Biden announced he would not be visiting Angola on 11-13 October as planned, citing the crisis of Hurricane Milton in Florida. He was due to hold a high-profile meeting with President João Lourenço, focusing on key issues like democracy, climate security, clean energy and peace. Biden said the trip had been postponed, but with the upcoming 5 November election it is unlikely Biden will visit Angola before the end of his term.</p> <p class="">Historically, only two US presidents have visited Africa in December or January: Franklin Roosevelt during World War II and George HW Bush in 1993 to visit US troops in Somalia.</p> <p class="">This history suggests that Biden’s postponed trip could very well be a missed opportunity to reset US-Africa relations, and with Barack Obama being the last president to visit Africa in 2015 (with stops in Kenya and Ethiopia), the postponement underscores the long-standing critique that the US often arrives too late or fails to follow through on its promises to Africa.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">The good that could have been</h2> <p class="">Had the trip occurred, it could have bolstered US investments in Angola’s oil, gas and mining sectors. Earlier this year, the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) financed Phase II of the Lobito Corridor, a project aimed at connecting mining regions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia to Angola’s port.</p> <p class="">Biden’s presence in Angola might have been a key moment to push for further collaboration on infrastructure and development projects.</p> <p class="">The visit also presented a chance for Angola to diversify away from China, which holds $17bn of Angolan debt. By offering alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the US could have positioned itself as a counterweight to growing Chinese and Russian influence.</p> <p class="">Angola’s close ties to those nations make it a strategic focal point, especially given US concerns over terrorism and Russian-backed mercenaries, like the Wagner Group, operating in Africa.</p> <p class="">Moreover, the trip could have signalled a shift in US engagement with Africa. Unlike China, the US doesn’t have a vast network of state-owned companies to underpin a BRI-style investment strategy, nor does it have the domestic oversupply of contractors to deploy to the continent.</p> <p class="">However, it does possess technical expertise and financial capital that could play a crucial role in sustainable development across the continent.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">The bad of the postponement</h2> <p class="">The postponement of Biden’s trip reflects the US’ ongoing inconsistency in engaging with Africa. While the US continues to express interest in Africa, concrete actions often lag behind, and this delay is emblematic of that trend.</p> <p class="">This inconsistency is particularly concerning as China has solidified its position as Africa’s largest trading partner, a status it achieved in 2009.</p> <p class="">China-Africa trade is now more than four times the volume of US-Africa trade. Even if Biden had made the trip, questions would remain about how the US plans to sustain its engagement with Africa after his presidency ends.</p> <p class="">Security partnerships also pose challenges. The recent withdrawal of US troops from Niger after political protests and Chad’s threats to end security cooperation highlight the fragility of US influence. Meanwhile, China’s BRI has signed deals with 52 African nations despite facing similar political and security challenges, demonstrating greater resilience in its approach.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">An opportunity lost</h2> <p class="">Africa’s influence in the Global South is growing. The expansion of the BRICS+ bloc this year, adding Ethiopia and Egypt alongside Iran and the UAE, reflects this trend.</p> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"> <p class="">Without swift and strategic action, the US risks being overshadowed in Africa as other global powers continue to strengthen their relationships and expand their influence</p> </blockquote> <p class="">Furthermore, 25 of 54 African countries abstained or did not vote on the 2022 UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, signalling a more independent stance on global issues.</p> <p class="">While the US has voiced support for two permanent African seats on the UN Security Council, such symbolic gestures (especially considering the US previously offered similar support to Germany, India and Japan) need to be accompanied by meaningful engagement across the continent on issues beyond security.</p> <p class="">Without this, the US risks falling behind not only China and Russia but also Gulf and European powers actively competing for influence in Africa.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading">The future of US influence in Africa</h2> <p class="">Africa is not bound to any single partner. The continent isn’t anti-China or anti-Russia; it’s open to collaborating with any nation that offers the best deals and support.</p> <p class="">Biden’s Angola trip could have been an opportunity for the US to demonstrate a new, strategic approach – one that goes beyond rhetoric and delivers real, sustainable outcomes.</p> <p class="">Without swift and strategic action, the US risks being overshadowed in Africa as other global powers continue to strengthen their relationships and expand their influence.</p> <p class="">Time is running out for the US to prove it can engage meaningfully and consistently with the continent.</p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <p class=""></p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>Top Foreign Policy Issues Facing Next U.S. President on Day 1</title> <link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/top-foreign-policy-issues-facing-next-u-s-president-on-day-1-saudi-arabia-israel-gaza-palestine-venezuela-mexico-immigration-china-taiwan-india-russia-ukraine-south-korea/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=top-foreign-policy-issues-facing-next-u-s-president-on-day-1-saudi-arabia-israel-gaza-palestine-venezuela-mexico-immigration-china-taiwan-india-russia-ukraine-south-korea</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Thu, 29 Aug 2024 17:01:30 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Latin America]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Middle East / Asia]]></category> <category><![CDATA[United States]]></category> <category><![CDATA[China]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Electric Vehicles]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Fentanyl]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Gaza]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Immigration]]></category> <category><![CDATA[India]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Mexico]]></category> <category><![CDATA[North Korea]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Nuclear Weapons]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Oil]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Palestine]]></category> <category><![CDATA[RUssia]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Saudi Arabia]]></category> <category><![CDATA[South Korea]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Taiwan]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Ukraine]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Venezuela]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=809</guid> <description><![CDATA[The 2024 U.S. presidential election is in full swing with candidates talking economic policy but partially skirting round foreign policy challenges. The foreign policy debate has been limited with most commentary focused on whether the policy will be more “arrogant” or “predictable”, neither of which are informative descriptions for a candidate or directionally insightful as a strategy. The next U.S. president will face several key issues on day 1 and, while temperament can be part of the test, there is a question of policy answers and details...]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-block-image"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1000" height="667" src="http://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Harris-Trump.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-813" style="width:810px;height:auto" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Harris-Trump.jpg 1000w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Harris-Trump-300x200.jpg 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Harris-Trump-768x512.jpg 768w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Harris-Trump-750x500.jpg 750w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States, on the left and Donald Trump, the former (45th) President of the United States, on the right (Photo Credit: Shutterstock)</figcaption></figure></div> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <h4 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-center"><strong style="font-style: italic;"><strong style="font-style: italic;">…</strong><em>Skirting foreign policy debates may work for this presidential campaign cycle, but the challenges are not going away</em></strong>…</h4> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <p class="">The 2024 U.S. presidential election is in full swing with candidates talking economic policy but partially skirting round foreign policy challenges.</p> <p class="">The foreign policy debate has been limited with most commentary focused on whether the policy will be more “arrogant” or “predictable”, neither of which are informative descriptions for a candidate or directionally insightful as a strategy.</p> <p class="">The next U.S. president will face several key issues on day 1 and, while temperament can be part of the test, there is a question of policy answers and details<strong>.</strong><strong></strong></p> <p class=""><strong>Venezuela: President Nicolás Maduro Goes or Stays?</strong><strong></strong></p> <p class="">Migrants, migrants, migrants…it is a major issue in the U.S. political dialogue. About 263,000 Venezuelans crossed the U.S. border in 2023, up from roughly 190,000 in 2022. The root causes of this migration, including democratic breakdown, political and social oppression, and a lack of human rights, have seemingly become more ingrained with the latest election victory by President Nicolás Maduro.</p> <p class="">The opposition, led by former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia, collected voting data that suggests it won nearly two-thirds of the vote. What does an unrecognized opposition victory mean? Can there be a negotiated exit for Maduro (rumored to have been offered by the U.S.)? With little hope of change, more Venezuelans will head for the U.S. southern border.</p> <p class=""><strong>Palestine: Two State Solution?</strong><strong></strong></p> <p class="">The war in Gaza is now entering month 11 with an elusive ceasefire agreement being discussed. The war has led to more than 40,000 deaths and the Gaza strip being relegated to “42 million tonnes of rubble.” An estimated 70% of housing has been damaged along with most hospitals and schools.</p> <p class="">It comes as no surprise that the ceasefire discussion has an immediate follow-up question: how does the global “we” reconstruct Gaza? Most Palestinians have been displaced and it is not clear what they can return to without a clear reconstruction plan.</p> <p class="">Furthermore, what is the ultimate solution? The two-state solution is widely accepted as the international solution, despite more and more Palestinians and Israelis discussing it with a sense of impossibility – how do you connect the Gaza Strip and the West Bank physically and politically?</p> <p class=""><strong>Saudi Arabia and Israel: A Peace Deal?</strong><strong></strong></p> <p class="">For months, Washington has said a deal to normalize diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel was near completion. Yet, there remains a few not-so-small stumbling blocks, such as a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine. Saudi officials reportedly are content with an Israeli commitment to a two-state solution without the detailed specifics of a plan – meanwhile, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (commonly known as MBS) is reportedly concerned that there may be a threat upon his life if he accepts this security deal.</p> <p class="">The deal could also falter without U.S. Senate support with numerous Democratic senators voicing opposition – a U.S. defense treaty (as part of the security pact) would require ratification from two-thirds of the Senate. Then there is the requirement of reducing security cooperation, such as weapon purchases and intelligence sharing, with China. There are leaders questioning whether the normalization deal is possible or worth the effort as it may not be the panacea that supporters imagine it. Nonetheless, if it does fall apart, then Washington will again need to reconsider how to engage both countries and find cooperation on an issue-by-issue basis? That may be even harder than finalizing the normalization deal.</p> <p class=""><strong>India: U.S. Ally or Not?</strong><strong></strong></p> <p class="">Washington continues to aggressively court India. Still. the prospects of properly “tying the proverbial knot” seems impossible with India focused more on a more non-traditional alliance with the U.S. India wants to avoid being dragged into the U.S. vortex of good and evil where sanctions would mean higher energy costs (as the Indian economy currently benefits from significantly discounted oil and coal from Russia) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi would uncomfortably be placed at the center of potential peace discussions between Russia and Ukraine. Modi, who made trips to Ukraine and Russia within weeks of each other, already signaled a lack of desire to be the messenger between the two countries.</p> <p class="">India also has a complicated relationship with China due to a disputed border, China’s ties to Pakistan, an unequal trade relationship, and growing competition for political, social and economic power in Asia – Washington views this chasm as an opportunity, but relationships built on a common enemy are not as strong as relationships built on common ambitions and views. Over time, it will be important for the U.S. and India to bond on the latter.</p> <p class=""><strong>Russia and Ukraine: A Never-ending War?</strong><strong></strong></p> <p class="">The war in Ukraine has passed 30 months with fighting mostly stalled along the frontlines. A surprise Ukrainian incursion into Kursk created some physical movement, though the more significant outcome was the distraction created for Russian troops and the boosted morale for Ukrainian troops. There is the potential Ukraine finds a way to leverage the territory in a negotiated settlement with Russia.</p> <p class="">Today, a negotiated settlement appears far away thus what is the ultimate path to peace? Can it even be negotiated or does one side have to surrender? A surrender is unlikely while a negotiation requires finding a credible mediator. The U.S. and China will struggle to be credible while India has said no. A Middle East country, like the UAE or Saudi Arabia, or an African country, such as South Africa could be an option.</p> <p class="">Until then, will the U.S., Europe and other allies implement more sanctions, especially targeting countries that help Russia circumvent existing sanctions, as well as continue to supply heavy artillery and weapons? What happens to Ukrainian membership in NATO or access to the E.U.?</p> <p class=""><strong>Mexico: Immigration and Fentanyl</strong><strong></strong></p> <p class="">U.S.-Mexico relations benefit from “friend-shoring” with Mexico supplanting China as the U.S.’s top trading partner. A migrant and fentanyl problem, however, will test them. Mexico has turned into a chokepoint for migrants with U.S. policies, such as the “Remain in Mexico” program and Title 42 (a temporary pandemic-era law that was used to expel asylum-seekers), yet the issue has not turned into a political football in Mexican politics. President Biden’s recent executive orders, which further restricted the application of U.S. asylum, will put more pressure on Mexico to house migrants.</p> <p class="">Even with less migrants crossing into the U.S., the fentanyl drug problem remains, despite producers using chemical precursors from China that are already subject to international controls. Some data suggests Mexico is doing less to stop the smuggling of fentanyl versus methamphetamines, which is more commonly sold within the country. What more can be done by countries to stem the fentanyl crisis? The status quo is not working.</p> <p class=""><strong>China: Taiwan and Fentanyl</strong><strong></strong></p> <p class="">Washington and Beijing have a complex bilateral relationship that is both economically interdependent and in competition. China arguably leads the global renewable race with its installed solar photovoltaic capacity, capturing of supply chains for critical minerals, and championing of EVs with big private producers like BYD. That reality drove the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which included more than $300 billion allocated for energy and climate investment, and is the impetus for Senator Marco Rubio’s and Senator Mark Warner’s recently introduced bill to combat China’s “monopoly” on critical minerals and related supply chains.</p> <p class="">The dispute over Taiwan crosses into this discussion with TSMC (officially Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) producing an estimated 90% of the world’s super-advanced semiconductor chips, which are used to power everything from smartphones to artificial intelligence applications. The U.S. requires access to these chips and is both promising to protect Taiwan if China attempts to retake control of the islands and passing legislation, like the CHIPS and Science Act, to strengthen production at home. Are all these bills enough? Tariffs are being tossed around as another piece of the solution. Lastly, let’s not forget the U.S. government claims China is subsidizing the manufacturing of the chemicals used by traffickers to make fentanyl. What can the U.S. do?</p> <p class=""><strong>The Korean Peninsula: An Emerging Nuclear War?</strong><strong></strong></p> <p class="">China and Taiwan may garner more attention, but the tension between the Koreas cannot be ignored. Polls show that a majority of South Koreans support the pursuit of nuclear weapons with the growing nuclear arsenal in North Korea and a sense of uncertainty around long-term support and nuclear deterrence from the U.S. (despite a recent agreement between the two allies on joint nuclear deterrence guidelines.) An arms race would create instability with the world hoping untested leaders on both sides do not prematurely hit the nuclear button. This would be a new political realm for the Koreas.</p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <p class=""></p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> <item> <title>Key Takeaways for Americans from the French Parliamentary Elections</title> <link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/key-takeaways-for-americans-from-the-french-parliamentary-elections-france-le-pen-bardella-national-ralley-rassemblement-national/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=key-takeaways-for-americans-from-the-french-parliamentary-elections-france-le-pen-bardella-national-ralley-rassemblement-national</link> <dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator> <pubDate>Fri, 05 Jul 2024 07:30:14 +0000</pubDate> <category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category> <category><![CDATA[United States]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Alternative for Germany]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Emmanuel Macron]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Far Right]]></category> <category><![CDATA[France]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Giorgia Meloni]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Immigration]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Jordan Bardella]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Marine Le Pen]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Party for Freedom]]></category> <category><![CDATA[Vlaams Belang]]></category> <guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=798</guid> <description><![CDATA[The French election may pass under the radar in the U.S., but there are some key takeaways for Americans...]]></description> <content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-block-image is-style-default"> <figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2560" height="1707" src="http://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/France-National-Rally-scaled.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-799" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/France-National-Rally-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/France-National-Rally-300x200.jpg 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/France-National-Rally-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/France-National-Rally-768x512.jpg 768w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/France-National-Rally-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Marine Le Pen, President of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National – RN) party parliamentary group, and Jordan Bardella, President of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National – RN) party and head of the RN list for the European elections, attend a political rally during the party’s campaign for the EU elections, in Paris, France, June 2, 2024. (Photo Credit: Reuters / Christian Hartmann)</figcaption></figure></div> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <h4 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-center"><em>The conservative movement is going strong…</em></h4> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <div style="height:20px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> <p class="">All of us are still digesting what happened Thursday night last week in Atlanta. The hot takes on the U.S. presidential debate and the calls for President Biden to step down are still dominating the news cycle a week later.</p> <p class="">The U.S., however, is not the only country with an election. France completed the 1<sup>st</sup> round of parliamentary elections on 30<sup>th</sup> June with the run-off scheduled for 7<sup>th</sup> July.</p> <p class="">Below are a few key takeaways that are not likely to disrupt the American news cycle but are nevertheless relevant to the politics.</p> <p class=""><strong>Track record and messaging are BOTH key…</strong></p> <p class="">French President Emmanuel Macron has remade France as a more modern, vibrant country with increasingly business friendly policies. He cut business and wealth taxes and implemented reforms for employment and pensions.</p> <p class="">Macron’s seven years as president was supposed to be cemented as historic or, at least, commendable when athletes and fans flocked to Paris for the Olympics this month. Brand-new train lines, sports venues, and restaurants were expected to be the physical manifestation of Paris’s emergence as a tech and banking hub and rival to London for talent and capital.</p> <p class="">Yet, the political center that Macron carved out in French politics has cratered as Rassemblement National (RN) is in the pole position after Sunday’s vote with vows to push back on immigration, increase border controls with other EU countries, and bring back the wealth tax.</p> <p class="">Macron did not only ignore the RN’s success in European elections last month but outright challenged the RN to defeat him (and his track record) by immediately calling for French elections when they were not required.</p> <p class="">Whether a protest vote or not back in June, the response by Macron was a “slap in the face” to voters by assuming they wouldn’t do it again…and well…they did it again. Lesson be learned: polling does matter and you cannot ignore the message or choose not to respond.</p> <p class=""><strong>Jordan Bardella symbolizes the youth movement…</strong></p> <p class="">The 28-year old RN president and protégé of Marine Le Pen has enjoyed a meteoric rise since his performance as RN’s spokesperson after which he became the party’s lead candidate, at age 23, for the 2019 European elections. He succeeded Le Pen as RN president at age 27 in 2022.</p> <p class="">Bardella was born to Italian immigrant parents and grew up in the underprivileged Parisian suburb of Seine-Saint-Deis. He represents what Americans are searching for in today’s politics: youth.</p> <p class="">Whatever your political stripes, there were true ‘cringe’ moments in last week’s U.S. presidential debate as President Biden struggled to communicate clearly and appeared to lose his train of thoughts at different moments in the debate.</p> <p class="">Both Democrats and Republicans do not lack young supporters nor do they lack capable young people – yes, many potential candidates have run off to the private sector for more lucrative careers, but the talent pool is nowhere near empty. Thus, how do the “old guard” (no pun intended) bring more of the young people to the forefront of leadership for both parties?</p> <p class=""><strong>Immigration is an issue for all individuals…</strong></p> <p class="">People who were once immigrants (or come from immigrant families like Bardella) can have a view that immigration should be limited without being labelled as self-hating or self-aggrandizing.</p> <p class="">The reality (and one’s interpretation) of job opportunities, wealth, social benefits and crime has changed perspectives on immigration in recent years.</p> <p class="">Leaders are balancing filling open jobs and finding taxpayers to fund government spending (including social benefits) against straining limited government resources beyond capacity and ensuring citizens believe they have job opportunities (and can create wealth in today’s world).</p> <p class="">Crime or, for many countries, the influx of drugs has been associated with immigration or, at least, border control.</p> <p class="">Border control as an issue—having now become all-encompassing—further challenges the public’s ability to navigate the nuances of issues.</p> <p class=""><strong>The global conservative movement is here to stay…</strong></p> <p class="">The RN’s dominance in recent polls coupled with the governing coalition in Italy led by Giorgia Meloni and the strength of Alternative for Germany (AfD) in European elections, Party for Freedom (PVV) in the most recent Dutch elections, and Vlaams Belang (VB) in the most recent Belgian elections demonstrate a heavy rightward shift in politics.</p> <p class="">Even in the scenarios, such as Belgium, where the far-right are not the leading party, the governing party is still rather conservative – the New Flemish Alliance would not be mistaken for liberal.</p> <p class="">The global strength of the conservative movement cannot be overstated…modern-day conservatives are not fascists and have done well in polling by ensuring the public that this movement is not a flashback to the 1930s.</p> <p class="">Italy’s Meloni (and other conservative leaders) understand that governing within the rules and fighting within the system demonstrates that the conservative movement is compatible with democracy…and not exactly a threat to democracy. </p> <p class="">Le Pen and (consequently the RN) were painted as a threat to the social fabric and political system of France…now the RN may very well play kingmaker in French politics. It all sounds like a familiar narrative.</p> <hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/> <p class=""></p> ]]></content:encoded> </item> </channel> </rss>