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	<title>Europe &#8211; The Musings Of A Politics Junkie &amp; Closet Economist</title>
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		<title>The French Exodus From Africa: Has It Helped Democracy</title>
		<link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/the-africa-report-the-french-exodus-from-africa-has-it-helped-democracy/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=the-africa-report-the-french-exodus-from-africa-has-it-helped-democracy</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 02 Nov 2024 15:42:12 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Burkina Faso]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Guinea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mali]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Niger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RUssia]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=862</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Was the criticism of France’s presence in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger more about national pride than about fostering true democratic development...]]></description>
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<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="727" height="417" src="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/French-Africa.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-863" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/French-Africa.jpg 727w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/French-Africa-300x172.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 727px) 100vw, 727px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Soldiers of the French military mission in the Sahel known as ‘Barkhane’ folding a French flag at an undisclosed military installation, amid the French military drawdown with troops leaving the last bases in Mali (Photo Credit: Handout / Etat Major des Armées / AFP)</figcaption></figure></div>


<p><strong><em>This originally appeared on <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/365448/the-french-exodus-from-africa-has-it-helped-democracy/" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.theafricareport.com/364214/opinion-us-president-bidens-postponed-angola-trip-is-a-missed-opportunity/">TheAfricaReport.com</a></em></strong></p>



<p>Was the criticism of France’s presence in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger more about national pride than about fostering true democratic development?</p>



<p>France has faced increasing calls to withdraw its military presence from several African countries in recent years, particularly in West and Central Africa, where it has maintained a strong presence for decades.</p>



<p>This movement, driven by nationalist sentiment, anti-colonial rhetoric, and political shifts across the continent, culminated in France’s strategic retreat from countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Yet, despite the hope that this withdrawal might empower local governments and democratic processes, the reality has been more complex – and in many cases, democracy has faltered rather than flourished.</p>



<p>For decades, France’s involvement in Africa was often criticised as a continuation of colonial-era dominance, a network often referred to as&nbsp;<em>f</em><em>rançafrique</em>. Military interventions, such as those in Mali in 2013 (Operation Serval) and subsequent engagements in the Sahel under Operation Barkhane, were justified as efforts to combat jihadist insurgencies. However, these missions also served to bolster the fragile governments of countries like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.</p>



<p>Critics of France’s presence claimed that these interventions, though wrapped in the language of security, propped up autocratic or weak leaders while stifling local sovereignty. As domestic opposition in Africa grew and France’s popularity waned, a wave of military coups swept across the region. These coups in Mali (2020), Guinea (2021), Burkina Faso (2022), and most recently Niger (2023), led to calls for France to depart entirely from these former colonies.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Exodus and its impact on democracy</h2>



<p>The withdrawal of French forces was heralded by many as a victory for national autonomy. However, the subsequent political developments have cast doubt on whether this exodus has indeed benefited democracy. In the power vacuums left behind, military juntas have risen, suspending constitutional rule, and replacing civilian governments with authoritarian regimes. For instance, in Mali and Burkina Faso, the coups were followed by transitional military governments that curtailed civil liberties, silenced the press and delayed the promised return to democratic elections.</p>



<p>Ironically, while French military involvement was often criticised for sustaining undemocratic regimes, its departure has not ushered in the democratic renewal some had anticipated. In fact, many of the juntas now in power appear less committed to democratic ideals than the civilian governments that preceded them. This begs the question: Was the criticism of France’s presence more about national pride than about fostering true democratic development?</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The role of Russia and other powers</h2>



<p>A complicating factor has been the entry of other global players into the African arena. Russia, in particular, has taken advantage of France’s retreat, deepening its influence through both diplomatic and military channels. The Wagner Group, a private Russian military company, has established a significant presence in Mali and the Central African Republic, often with the tacit approval of local regimes. These relationships, based more on military strength than democratic principles, have raised alarms about the future of governance in the region.</p>



<p>In Mali, the junta’s alignment with Russia and the departure of French forces coincided with a deteriorating security situation, with jihadist attacks continuing to plague the region. Similarly, Burkina Faso and Niger have struggled to regain control over vast swathes of territory. The influence of external actors like Russia, with little interest in promoting democracy, has created an environment where authoritarian rule is not only tolerated but reinforced.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A deeper crisis of governance</h2>



<p>Beyond geopolitics, the challenges to democracy in these countries also reflect deep-rooted governance issues. Corruption, weak institutions, and social inequality have long undermined the capacity of some African states to build inclusive political systems. French military support may have masked these structural problems, but its withdrawal has only exposed the fragility of state institutions.</p>



<p>In many cases, the local populations that had called for an end to French involvement are now disillusioned with the military regimes that replaced them. The promise of a democratic resurgence has been replaced by a sense of uncertainty, as African nations navigate new alliances with global powers that may be less interested in democratic outcomes.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What’s next?</h2>



<p>The French exodus from Africa has not resulted in the democratic progress many had hoped for. While it has provided African nations with the opportunity to reclaim their sovereignty, it has also left them vulnerable to new forms of authoritarianism, both domestic and foreign. The rise of military juntas and the increasing influence of Russia suggest that the region’s political future may be defined by instability rather than democracy.</p>



<p>The challenge moving forward will be for African countries to balance national sovereignty with the need for stable, democratic governance. Without significant internal reforms, external military interventions — whether by France, Russia, or other powers — will continue to shape the political landscape, often at the expense of democratic ideals.</p>



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		<title>Israel’s Expanding War and the Echoes of the American ‘Surge’ Strategy</title>
		<link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/israels-expanding-war-and-the-echoes-of-the-american-surge-strategy-dc-journal/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=israels-expanding-war-and-the-echoes-of-the-american-surge-strategy-dc-journal</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Oct 2024 02:14:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East / Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Afghanistan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hamas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hezbollah]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iraq]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lebanon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Syria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yemen]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=848</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Israel has dramatically escalated its military operations, extending beyond Gaza to include strikes in Lebanon, Yemen and Syria. This expansion marks a significant shift in strategy that borrows heavily from the American playbook while tailoring it to Israel’s unique geopolitical context. As the conflict intensifies, it’s crucial to examine the implications of this approach, not just for the Middle East but for global security and economic stability...]]></description>
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<figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="300" height="300" src="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/bigstock-Haifa-Israel-April-475176925-300x300-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-849" style="width:578px;height:578px" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/bigstock-Haifa-Israel-April-475176925-300x300-1.jpg 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/bigstock-Haifa-Israel-April-475176925-300x300-1-150x150.jpg 150w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /></figure></div>


<p class=""></p>



<p class=""><strong><em>This originally appeared in <a href="https://dcjournal.com/israels-expanding-war-and-the-echoes-of-the-american-surge-strategy/" data-type="link" data-id="https://dcjournal.com/israels-expanding-war-and-the-echoes-of-the-american-surge-strategy/">DCJournal.com</a></em></strong></p>



<p class="">In recent weeks, Israel has dramatically escalated its military operations, extending beyond Gaza to include strikes in Lebanon, Yemen and Syria. This expansion marks a significant shift in strategy that borrows heavily from the American playbook while tailoring it to Israel’s unique geopolitical context. As the conflict intensifies, it’s crucial to examine the implications of this approach, not just for the Middle East but for global security and economic stability.</p>



<p class="">Israel’s campaign bears striking similarities to the U.S. “surge” strategy employed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Like the American approach, Israel aims to use overwhelming force to neutralize threats quickly and create conditions for long-term stability. However, Israel’s version is more focused and time-sensitive, reflecting the immediacy of the threats it faces.</p>



<p class="">The Israeli government, still reeling from the October 7 Hamas attack, has concluded that the status quo is no longer tenable. This shift in thinking mirrors the U.S. response to 9/11 when the tolerance for terrorist safe havens evaporated overnight. But while the United States had the luxury of distance, Israel is grappling with threats on its doorstep, necessitating a more urgent and comprehensive response.</p>



<p class="">Unlike the U.S. campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, Israel is not seeking a prolonged occupation or nation-building exercise. Instead, it’s pursuing a strategy of surgical precision aimed at dismantling the leadership and capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah. This approach reflects a growing weariness with the “hearts and minds” doctrine that has often proved challenging (some may say ineffective) in counterterrorism efforts.</p>



<p class="">Focusing on precision and speed is not just a tactical choice but a strategic necessity. Israel understands that a drawn-out conflict could erode international support and strain its own resources. By emphasizing targeted strikes and limited ground incursions, Israel hopes to achieve its security objectives while minimizing civilian casualties and avoiding the quagmire of long-term occupation. Can surgical strikes alone create the conditions for lasting peace.</p>



<p class="">At the heart of Israel’s expanded campaign is Iran. Tehran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah, coupled with its nuclear ambitions, represents an existential threat to Israel. The current offensive can be seen as an indirect confrontation with Iran aimed at weakening its proxies and deterring further aggression.</p>



<p class="">However, this strategy carries significant risks. Any miscalculation could lead to direct conflict with Iran, potentially drawing in other regional powers and escalating into a wider war. The international community, particularly the United States, must tread carefully in its support for Israel, balancing the need for deterrence against the risk of uncontrolled escalation.</p>



<p class="">The potential economic consequences of this conflict cannot be overstated. Any disruption to oil supplies from the Middle East could send shockwaves through the global economy. With the U.S. presidential election on the horizon, the effect on energy prices could become a pivotal issue, influencing domestic politics and international relations.</p>



<p class="">Policymakers in Washington must be prepared for various scenarios, including the possibility of Israeli strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure. The most discussed target is the Kharg oil terminal, which handles 80 percent to 90 percent of oil exports, most of which are destined for China. Such an action would spike oil prices and lead to retaliatory measures that further destabilize the region and global markets.</p>



<p class="">As Israel pursues this high-stakes strategy, it must maintain clear objectives and an exit strategy. The goal should be to neutralize immediate threats and create a more favorable security environment, not to become entangled in an open-ended conflict.</p>



<p class="">For the United States, the challenge lies in supporting its ally while preventing further escalation. This will require deft diplomacy, leveraging relationships with other regional powers to contain the conflict and push for a sustainable resolution.</p>



<p class="">The international community must also play a role in mediating the current crisis and addressing the underlying issues that fuel conflict in the region. This includes renewed efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and a comprehensive approach to curbing Iran’s destabilizing activities.</p>



<p class="">Israel’s expanded war represents a calculated gamble to reshape the security landscape of the Middle East. While the strategy draws from American experiences, it’s tailored to Israel’s unique position and threats.</p>



<p class="">As the situation unfolds, we must remember the lessons of past conflicts. No matter how precise, military action alone rarely solves deep-seated political and social issues. For lasting peace, Israel and its allies must couple their military strategy with robust diplomatic efforts and a clear vision for post-conflict reconstruction and governance.</p>



<p class="">The echoes of American strategy in Israel’s actions are clear. Now, we must hope that Israel has learned not just from America’s initial interventions but from the complex, often painful aftermath of those conflicts. The stability of the Middle East — and perhaps the world — may depend on it.</p>



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<p class=""></p>
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		<title>The Unfulfilled Promise Of Biden&#8217;s Foreign Policy</title>
		<link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/thehill-biden-foreign-policy-challenges-the-unfulfilled-promise-of-bidens-foreign-policy/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=thehill-biden-foreign-policy-challenges-the-unfulfilled-promise-of-bidens-foreign-policy</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Oct 2024 17:48:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latin America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East / Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Afghanistan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hamas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iranian Funds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Biden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[President Biden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ukraine]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=842</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[President Biden entered office with a wealth of foreign policy experience and the promise to restore American leadership on the global stage. Yet, as his term nears its end, his administration’s handling of international crises raises questions about the effectiveness of his approach...]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img decoding="async" width="1850" height="1231" src="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-845" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP.jpg 1850w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP-300x200.jpg 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP-1024x681.jpg 1024w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP-768x511.jpg 768w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP-1536x1022.jpg 1536w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP-1130x752.jpg 1130w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Biden-FP-750x499.jpg 750w" sizes="(max-width: 1850px) 100vw, 1850px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">(Photo Credit: AP Photo / Rod Lamkey, Jr.)</figcaption></figure></div>


<p class=""><strong><em>This was originally published by <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/4927852-biden-foreign-policy-challenges/" data-type="link" data-id="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4306629-saudi-arabia-wants-the-indian-premier-league-why-is-there-no-discussion-of-sportswashing/">The Hill.</a></em></strong></p>



<p class="">President Biden entered office with a wealth of foreign policy experience and the promise to restore American leadership on the global stage. Yet, as his term nears its end, his administration’s handling of international crises raises questions about the effectiveness of his approach.</p>



<p class="">While facing a complex and volatile world, Biden’s foreign policy has been marked by caution that at times borders on indecision, potentially undermining U.S. interests and global stability.</p>



<p class="">The conflict in Ukraine exemplifies the administration’s struggle to balance support with risk management. While providing substantial military aid, the Biden team has also imposed restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons. This cautious approach, aimed at preventing escalation with Russia, has inadvertently prolonged the conflict.</p>



<p class="">As the war enters its third year, both European allies and Ukraine have expressed frustration with what they perceive as unnecessary limitations on their tactical options. The administration’s slow-walking of critical decisions raises concerns about its ability to respond decisively to rapidly evolving situations.</p>



<p class="">In the Middle East, the recent escalation of violence between Israel and Hamas presents another significant challenge. Despite extensive diplomatic efforts, the administration has struggled to negotiate hostage releases or broker lasting ceasefires (at one point promising agreements on periodic basis that failed to materialize). The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the potential for wider regional conflict underscore the limitations of the current approach.</p>



<p class="">Biden’s inability to rein in the violence or effectively engage with key regional players has led to increased anti-American sentiment across the Arab world. This situation highlights the complexities of Middle Eastern politics and the need for a more comprehensive strategy.</p>



<p class="">Perhaps no foreign policy challenge better illustrates the administration’s difficulties than its approach to Iran. Attempts to revive the nuclear deal have faltered, while Iran’s regional influence continues to grow. The controversial decision to unfreeze $6 billion in Iranian funds, though intended for humanitarian purposes, has been criticized for potentially empowering Iran at a critical juncture.</p>



<p class="">The lack of a clear strategy to address Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its support for regional proxies remains a significant gap in the administration’s Middle East policy. This absence of a coherent approach has implications not only for regional stability but also for U.S. credibility among allies and adversaries alike.</p>



<p class="">These challenges are part of a broader pattern of reactive rather than proactive policymaking. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, while ending a prolonged U.S. military engagement, raised serious questions about strategic planning and execution. Relations with China have oscillated between confrontational rhetoric issues (like Taiwan, human rights and trade) and diplomatic overtures yet have produced little meaningful change in Beijing’s behavior or its growing global influence. The administration’s attempts to counter China through alliances like the Quad and AUKUS have been slow to materialize into concrete actions.</p>



<p class="">In Latin America, the administration has struggled to articulate a clear policy direction, particularly on pressing issues like migration reform and regional stability. The administration is also still debating how to address ongoing political and economic crisis in Venezuela following the disputed reelection of President Nicolas Maduro.</p>



<p class="">President Biden’s extensive experience in foreign affairs was expected to be a strength of his administration. However, in practice, his cautious approach has often left the U.S. struggling to respond effectively to fast-moving global events.</p>



<p class="">While some degree of prudence is necessary in international relations, excessive caution can be as detrimental as recklessness. In Ukraine, it has potentially prolonged a brutal conflict. In the Middle East, it has allowed a regional war and humanitarian crises to fester. And globally, it has created a leadership vacuum that adversaries are all too eager to fill.</p>



<p class="">As we approach 2024, there is an urgent need for a reassessment of U.S. foreign policy strategies. The world faces increasingly complex challenges that demand not only experience but also adaptability and decisive action. The coming months will be crucial in determining Biden foreign policy legacy and his ability to reassert and define American leadership before the next president assumes office.</p>



<p class="">In a world that continues to test the limits of diplomacy and international cooperation, the U.S. must find a balance between cautious deliberation and bold action. The administration’s foreign policy legacy — and indeed, global stability — may well depend on its ability to make this shift in the next month or so.</p>



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		<title>Top Foreign Policy Issues Facing Next U.S. President on Day 1</title>
		<link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/top-foreign-policy-issues-facing-next-u-s-president-on-day-1-saudi-arabia-israel-gaza-palestine-venezuela-mexico-immigration-china-taiwan-india-russia-ukraine-south-korea/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=top-foreign-policy-issues-facing-next-u-s-president-on-day-1-saudi-arabia-israel-gaza-palestine-venezuela-mexico-immigration-china-taiwan-india-russia-ukraine-south-korea</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Aug 2024 17:01:30 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Electric Vehicles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fentanyl]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gaza]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Immigration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Mexico]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Palestine]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[South Korea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taiwan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ukraine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Venezuela]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=809</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The 2024 U.S. presidential election is in full swing with candidates talking economic policy but partially skirting round foreign policy challenges. The foreign policy debate has been limited with most commentary focused on whether the policy will be more “arrogant” or “predictable”, neither of which are informative descriptions for a candidate or directionally insightful as a strategy. The next U.S. president will face several key issues on day 1 and, while temperament can be part of the test, there is a question of policy answers and details...]]></description>
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<figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1000" height="667" src="http://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Harris-Trump.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-813" style="width:810px;height:auto" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Harris-Trump.jpg 1000w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Harris-Trump-300x200.jpg 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Harris-Trump-768x512.jpg 768w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Harris-Trump-750x500.jpg 750w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States, on the left and Donald Trump, the former (45th) President of the United States, on the right (Photo Credit: Shutterstock)</figcaption></figure></div>


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<h4 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-center"><strong style="font-style: italic;"><strong style="font-style: italic;">&#8230;</strong><em>Skirting foreign policy debates may work for this presidential campaign cycle, but the challenges are not going away</em></strong>&#8230;</h4>



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<p class="">The 2024 U.S. presidential election is in full swing with candidates talking economic policy but partially skirting round foreign policy challenges.</p>



<p class="">The foreign policy debate has been limited with most commentary focused on whether the policy will be more “arrogant” or “predictable”, neither of which are informative descriptions for a candidate or directionally insightful as a strategy.</p>



<p class="">The next U.S. president will face several key issues on day 1 and, while temperament can be part of the test, there is a question of policy answers and details<strong>.</strong><strong></strong></p>



<p class=""><strong>Venezuela: President Nicolás Maduro Goes or Stays?</strong><strong></strong></p>



<p class="">Migrants, migrants, migrants…it is a major issue in the U.S. political dialogue. About 263,000 Venezuelans crossed the U.S. border in 2023, up from roughly 190,000 in 2022. The root causes of this migration, including democratic breakdown, political and social oppression, and a lack of human rights, have seemingly become more ingrained with the latest election victory by President Nicolás Maduro.</p>



<p class="">The opposition, led by former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia, collected voting data that suggests it won nearly two-thirds of the vote. What does an unrecognized opposition victory mean? Can there be a negotiated exit for Maduro (rumored to have been offered by the U.S.)?&nbsp; With little hope of change, more Venezuelans will head for the U.S. southern border.</p>



<p class=""><strong>Palestine: Two State Solution?</strong><strong></strong></p>



<p class="">The war in Gaza is now entering month 11 with an elusive ceasefire agreement being discussed. The war has led to more than 40,000 deaths and the Gaza strip being relegated to “42 million tonnes of rubble.” An estimated 70% of housing has been damaged along with most hospitals and schools.</p>



<p class="">It comes as no surprise that the ceasefire discussion has an immediate follow-up question: how does the global “we” reconstruct Gaza? Most Palestinians have been displaced and it is not clear what they can return to without a clear reconstruction plan.</p>



<p class="">Furthermore, what is the ultimate solution? The two-state solution is widely accepted as the international solution, despite more and more Palestinians and Israelis discussing it with a sense of impossibility – how do you connect the Gaza Strip and the West Bank physically and politically?</p>



<p class=""><strong>Saudi Arabia and Israel: A Peace Deal?</strong><strong></strong></p>



<p class="">For months, Washington has said a deal to normalize diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel was near completion. Yet, there remains a few not-so-small stumbling blocks, such as a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine. Saudi officials reportedly are content with an Israeli commitment to a two-state solution without the detailed specifics of a plan – meanwhile, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (commonly known as MBS) is reportedly concerned that there may be a threat upon his life if he accepts this security deal.</p>



<p class="">The deal could also falter without U.S. Senate support with numerous Democratic senators voicing opposition – a U.S. defense treaty (as part of the security pact) would require ratification from two-thirds of the Senate. Then there is the requirement of reducing security cooperation, such as weapon purchases and intelligence sharing, with China. There are leaders questioning whether the normalization deal is possible or worth the effort as it may not be the panacea that supporters imagine it. Nonetheless, if it does fall apart, then Washington will again need to reconsider how to engage both countries and find cooperation on an issue-by-issue basis? That may be even harder than finalizing the normalization deal.</p>



<p class=""><strong>India: U.S. Ally or Not?</strong><strong></strong></p>



<p class="">Washington continues to aggressively court India. Still. the prospects of properly “tying the proverbial knot” seems impossible with India focused more on a more non-traditional alliance with the U.S. India wants to avoid being dragged into the U.S. vortex of good and evil where sanctions would mean higher energy costs (as the Indian economy currently benefits from significantly discounted oil and coal from Russia) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi would uncomfortably be placed at the center of potential peace discussions between Russia and Ukraine. Modi, who made trips to Ukraine and Russia within weeks of each other, already signaled a lack of desire to be the messenger between the two countries.</p>



<p class="">India also has a complicated relationship with China due to a disputed border, China’s ties to Pakistan, an unequal trade relationship, and growing competition for political, social and economic power in Asia – Washington views this chasm as an opportunity, but relationships built on a common enemy are not as strong as relationships built on common ambitions and views. Over time, it will be important for the U.S. and India to bond on the latter.</p>



<p class=""><strong>Russia and Ukraine: A Never-ending War?</strong><strong></strong></p>



<p class="">The war in Ukraine has passed 30 months with fighting mostly stalled along the frontlines. A surprise Ukrainian incursion into Kursk created some physical movement, though the more significant outcome was the distraction created for Russian troops and the boosted morale for Ukrainian troops. There is the potential Ukraine finds a way to leverage the territory in a negotiated settlement with Russia.</p>



<p class="">Today, a negotiated settlement appears far away thus what is the ultimate path to peace? Can it even be negotiated or does one side have to surrender? A surrender is unlikely while a negotiation requires finding a credible mediator. The U.S. and China will struggle to be credible while India has said no. A Middle East country, like the UAE or Saudi Arabia, or an African country, such as South Africa could be an option.</p>



<p class="">Until then, will the U.S., Europe and other allies implement more sanctions, especially targeting countries that help Russia circumvent existing sanctions, as well as continue to supply heavy artillery and weapons? What happens to Ukrainian membership in NATO or access to the E.U.?</p>



<p class=""><strong>Mexico: Immigration and Fentanyl</strong><strong></strong></p>



<p class="">U.S.-Mexico relations benefit from “friend-shoring” with Mexico supplanting China as the U.S.’s top trading partner. A migrant and fentanyl problem, however, will test them. Mexico has turned into a chokepoint for migrants with U.S. policies, such as the “Remain in Mexico” program and Title 42 (a temporary pandemic-era law that was used to expel asylum-seekers), yet the issue has not turned into a political football in Mexican politics. President Biden’s recent executive orders, which further restricted the application of U.S. asylum, will put more pressure on Mexico to house migrants.</p>



<p class="">Even with less migrants crossing into the U.S., the fentanyl drug problem remains, despite producers using chemical precursors from China that are already subject to international controls. Some data suggests Mexico is doing less to stop the smuggling of fentanyl versus methamphetamines, which is more commonly sold within the country. What more can be done by countries to stem the fentanyl crisis? The status quo is not working.</p>



<p class=""><strong>China: Taiwan and Fentanyl</strong><strong></strong></p>



<p class="">Washington and Beijing have a complex bilateral relationship that is both economically interdependent and in competition. China arguably leads the global renewable race with its installed solar photovoltaic capacity, capturing of supply chains for critical minerals, and championing of EVs with big private producers like BYD. That reality drove the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which included more than $300 billion allocated for energy and climate investment, and is the impetus for Senator Marco Rubio’s and Senator Mark Warner’s recently introduced bill to combat China’s “monopoly” on critical minerals and related supply chains.</p>



<p class="">The dispute over Taiwan crosses into this discussion with TSMC (officially Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) producing an estimated 90% of the world’s super-advanced semiconductor chips, which are used to power everything from smartphones to artificial intelligence applications. The U.S. requires access to these chips and is both promising to protect Taiwan if China attempts to retake control of the islands and passing legislation, like the CHIPS and Science Act, to strengthen production at home. Are all these bills enough? Tariffs are being tossed around as another piece of the solution. Lastly, let’s not forget the U.S. government claims China is subsidizing the manufacturing of the chemicals used by traffickers to make fentanyl. What can the U.S. do?</p>



<p class=""><strong>The Korean Peninsula: An Emerging Nuclear War?</strong><strong></strong></p>



<p class="">China and Taiwan may garner more attention, but the tension between the Koreas cannot be ignored. Polls show that a majority of South Koreans support the pursuit of nuclear weapons with the growing nuclear arsenal in North Korea and a sense of uncertainty around long-term support and nuclear deterrence from the U.S. (despite a recent agreement between the two allies on joint nuclear deterrence guidelines.) An arms race would create instability with the world hoping untested leaders on both sides do not prematurely hit the nuclear button. This would be a new political realm for the Koreas.</p>



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		<title>Key Takeaways for Americans from the French Parliamentary Elections</title>
		<link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/key-takeaways-for-americans-from-the-french-parliamentary-elections-france-le-pen-bardella-national-ralley-rassemblement-national/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=key-takeaways-for-americans-from-the-french-parliamentary-elections-france-le-pen-bardella-national-ralley-rassemblement-national</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Jul 2024 07:30:14 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alternative for Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emmanuel Macron]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Far Right]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Giorgia Meloni]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Immigration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jordan Bardella]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marine Le Pen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Party for Freedom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vlaams Belang]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=798</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The French election may pass under the radar in the U.S., but there are some key takeaways for Americans...]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-block-image is-style-default">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2560" height="1707" src="http://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/France-National-Rally-scaled.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-799" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/France-National-Rally-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/France-National-Rally-300x200.jpg 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/France-National-Rally-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/France-National-Rally-768x512.jpg 768w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/France-National-Rally-1536x1024.jpg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Marine Le Pen, President of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National &#8211; RN) party parliamentary group, and Jordan Bardella, President of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National &#8211; RN) party and head of the RN list for the European elections, attend a political rally during the party&#8217;s campaign for the EU elections, in Paris, France, June 2, 2024. (Photo Credit: Reuters / Christian Hartmann)</figcaption></figure></div>


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<h4 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-center"><em>The conservative movement is going strong&#8230;</em></h4>



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<p class="">All of us are still digesting what happened Thursday night last week in Atlanta. The hot takes on the U.S. presidential debate and the calls for President Biden to step down are still dominating the news cycle a week later.</p>



<p class="">The U.S., however, is not the only country with an election. France completed the 1<sup>st</sup> round of parliamentary elections on 30<sup>th</sup> June with the run-off scheduled for 7<sup>th</sup> July.</p>



<p class="">Below are a few key takeaways that are not likely to disrupt the American news cycle but are nevertheless relevant to the politics.</p>



<p class=""><strong>Track record and messaging are BOTH key…</strong></p>



<p class="">French President Emmanuel Macron has remade France as a more modern, vibrant country with increasingly business friendly policies. He cut business and wealth taxes and implemented reforms for employment and pensions.</p>



<p class="">Macron’s seven years as president was supposed to be cemented as historic or, at least, commendable when athletes and fans flocked to Paris for the Olympics this month. Brand-new train lines, sports venues, and restaurants were expected to be the physical manifestation of Paris’s emergence as a tech and banking hub and rival to London for talent and capital.</p>



<p class="">Yet, the political center that Macron carved out in French politics has cratered as Rassemblement National (RN) is in the pole position after Sunday’s vote with vows to push back on immigration, increase border controls with other EU countries, and bring back the wealth tax.</p>



<p class="">Macron did not only ignore the RN’s success in European elections last month but outright challenged the RN to defeat him (and his track record) by immediately calling for French elections when they were not required.</p>



<p class="">Whether a protest vote or not back in June, the response by Macron was a “slap in the face” to voters by assuming they wouldn’t do it again…and well…they did it again. Lesson be learned: polling does matter and you cannot ignore the message or choose not to respond.</p>



<p class=""><strong>Jordan Bardella symbolizes the youth movement…</strong></p>



<p class="">The 28-year old RN president and protégé of Marine Le Pen has enjoyed a meteoric rise since his performance as RN’s spokesperson after which he became the party’s lead candidate, at age 23, for the 2019 European elections. He succeeded Le Pen as RN president at age 27 in 2022.</p>



<p class="">Bardella was born to Italian immigrant parents and grew up in the underprivileged Parisian suburb of Seine-Saint-Deis. He represents what Americans are searching for in today’s politics: youth.</p>



<p class="">Whatever your political stripes, there were true ‘cringe’ moments in last week’s U.S. presidential debate as President Biden struggled to communicate clearly and appeared to lose his train of thoughts at different moments in the debate.</p>



<p class="">Both Democrats and Republicans do not lack young supporters nor do they lack capable young people – yes, many potential candidates have run off to the private sector for more lucrative careers, but the talent pool is nowhere near empty. Thus, how do the “old guard” (no pun intended) bring more of the young people to the forefront of leadership for both parties?</p>



<p class=""><strong>Immigration is an issue for all individuals…</strong></p>



<p class="">People who were once immigrants (or come from immigrant families like Bardella) can have a view that immigration should be limited without being labelled as self-hating or self-aggrandizing.</p>



<p class="">The reality (and one’s interpretation) of job opportunities, wealth, social benefits and crime has changed perspectives on immigration in recent years.</p>



<p class="">Leaders are balancing filling open jobs and finding taxpayers to fund government spending (including social benefits) against straining limited government resources beyond capacity and ensuring citizens believe they have job opportunities (and can create wealth in today’s world).</p>



<p class="">Crime or, for many countries, the influx of drugs has been associated with immigration or, at least, border control.</p>



<p class="">Border control as an issue—having now become all-encompassing—further challenges the public’s ability to navigate the nuances of issues.</p>



<p class=""><strong>The global conservative movement is here to stay…</strong></p>



<p class="">The RN’s dominance in recent polls coupled with the governing coalition in Italy led by Giorgia Meloni and the strength of Alternative for Germany (AfD) in European elections, Party for Freedom (PVV) in the most recent Dutch elections, and Vlaams Belang (VB) in the most recent Belgian elections demonstrate a heavy rightward shift in politics.</p>



<p class="">Even in the scenarios, such as Belgium, where the far-right are not the leading party, the governing party is still rather conservative – the New Flemish Alliance would not be mistaken for liberal.</p>



<p class="">The global strength of the conservative movement cannot be overstated…modern-day conservatives are not fascists and have done well in polling by ensuring the public that this movement is not a flashback to the 1930s.</p>



<p class="">Italy’s Meloni (and other conservative leaders) understand that governing within the rules and fighting within the system demonstrates that the conservative movement is compatible with democracy…and not exactly a threat to democracy. </p>



<p class="">Le Pen and (consequently the RN) were painted as a threat to the social fabric and political system of France…now the RN may very well play kingmaker in French politics. It all sounds like a familiar narrative.</p>



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		<title>Top 10 Economies To Watch In 2024</title>
		<link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/top-10-economies-to-watch-in-2024-china-india-russia-saudi-arabia-argentina-germany-chile-mexico-brazil-kenya/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=top-10-economies-to-watch-in-2024-china-india-russia-saudi-arabia-argentina-germany-chile-mexico-brazil-kenya</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jan 2024 15:34:17 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latin America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East / Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2024]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Argentina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chile]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kenya]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RUssia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Saudi Arabia]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=772</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[2024 is the year of elections...for most voters, “It’s the economy, stupid” may reign supreme...these are 10 bellwether economies to watch in 2024...]]></description>
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<figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="886" height="600" src="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Economies-2024-iStockphoto.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-774" style="width:810px;height:auto" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Economies-2024-iStockphoto.jpeg 886w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Economies-2024-iStockphoto-300x203.jpeg 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Economies-2024-iStockphoto-768x520.jpeg 768w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Economies-2024-iStockphoto-750x508.jpeg 750w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 886px) 100vw, 886px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">(Photo Credit: iStock)</figcaption></figure></div>


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<h4 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-center"><strong style="font-style: italic;"><strong style="font-style: italic;">&#8230;</strong><em>The bellwether economies for 2024</em><em>…</em></strong></h4>



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<p><strong><em>This originally appeared in </em></strong><em><strong><a href="https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/geopolitical-insights/news/top-10-economies-watch-2024-3522366" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/geopolitical-insights/news/top-10-economies-watch-2024-3522366">The Daily Star</a></strong></em>.</p>



<p>2024 could be a year of optimism (or fret) depending on your views on elections. Voters in more than 50 countries will go to the polls this year.</p>



<p>“It’s the economy, stupid”—the infamous phrase from former U.S. President Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign—may reign supreme this year for most elections. And consequently, in a globally connected world, this can mean watching other economies across the globe.</p>



<p>Below are the top ten bellwether economies to watch in 2024.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>China</strong></h2>



<p><em>Can China fix the real estate sector and strengthen the Chinese (shadow) banking sector?</em></p>



<p>Did the Chinese 2023 experience resemble a replay of the U.S. economy in 2008? The 2008 Great Recession was caused by the bursting of a housing bubble followed by a collapse of U.S. shadow banks—financial institutions that act like banks—that were both generally unregulated and without the capital cushion required at traditional banks. The Chinese real estate sector today—much bigger than 2008—has a shadow banking problem, underscored by the recent Zhongzhi Enterprise Group Co. bankruptcy filing which followed the company’s admission of being “severely insolvent” with a $36.4 billion shortfall. The upside to the Chinese crisis today is that the creditor pool is significantly Chinese and foreign creditor exposure is nowhere near the levels observed in 2008 to the U.S. Still, China must quickly find a solution to a predominantly internal problem that weighs on the overall economy (with growth slowing to 5.2%). A weakened Chinese economy may excite some China critics, but China is too big to stay weak too long without a greater spillover to other economies.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>India</strong></h2>



<p><em>India sees an opportunity and chases after it…</em></p>



<p>In a world of superlatives, one economic debate focuses on whether India passes China – India is the 5<sup>th</sup> largest economy and China is the 2<sup>nd</sup> largest economy in the world. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi rightfully sees an opportunity to challenge China with an entrepreneurial population that exceeds 1.4 billion and an economic engine alongside it (with growth projected above 6%). A couple banks, including Barclays and HSBC, have done the math on what growth India requires to replace China as the biggest contributor to the world’s growth. The conclusion is the country requires significantly more investment to get to that level…thus the ultimate focus (after the 2024 elections) will be on turbocharging investment across the economy.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Saudi Arabia</strong></h2>



<p><em>Steadily but surely towards 2030 Vision…</em></p>



<p>Saudi Arabia is another country that sees opportunity. Oil revenue continues to fund the kingdom’s ambition despite a price drop and budget deficit in 2023 – the average Brent price per barrel dropped to below $80 in 2024 after averaging above $82 in 2023 and above $100 in 2022. Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) invested $31.6 billion across 49 deals in 2023, and the messaging from the kingdom is spending will continue as the country pushes toward its Vision 2030 economic transformation goals. As hosts of the Asian Winter Games in 2029, Expo 2030 in Riyadh, and FIFA World Cup in 2034, officials are keeping their eye on the ball. Pun intended. This is not all sports spending (despite the news splash with Cristiano Ronaldo and LIV golf) as PIF spent significant money on construction, aircraft leasing, gaming, and renewable energy.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Argentina</strong></h2>



<p><em>What will the presidency of Javier Milei teach us?</em></p>



<p>Argentina has become synonymous with hyperinflation. The economy battled nearly 100% inflation in 2022 and nearly 200% in 2023. Newly elected President Javier Milei cannot exactly turnaround the Argentine economy overnight, yet the Argentine population may have that expectation. Investors (and politicians) will be examining Milei’s every move and the responses within the economy and from the voters for any indication that the country&#8217;s distorted economy is on the mend. Also, can the Milei administration privatize state entities to the benefit of the country?</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Kenya</strong></h2>



<p><em>Can Kenya balance the books in 2024?</em></p>



<p>News that Kenya would consider load shedding—scheduled power outages to manage demand on the grid—to address the frequent blackouts experienced in 2023 sent shock waves across the African investment community. Kenya is a leader in renewable energy with more than 70% of its power from sources, such as geothermal, hydro, and wind. Actis, which was one of the leading investors in renewables in Africa, however, did close its office in Kenya. President William Ruto’s administration has introduced tax proposals to strengthen the country’s ability to repay its debt but rising inflation and the high cost of living continue to hamper the economy and the proposed tax hikes. A sovereign default could create an unprecedented economic downturn for the country with potential regional spillover. Ruto’s team knows this and is being honest with the public about efforts to avoid it.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Russia</strong></h2>



<p><em>Commodities and sanctions…how will it all play out?</em></p>



<p>The War in Ukraine will continue to dominate the conversation. The Western sanctions imposed against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine were designed to destroy the Russian economy and cut it off financially (and politically) from the rest of the world. Yet, Russian officials (and central bankers) have proven resilient in managing the economy. The budget deficit seen at the beginning of 2022, as result of advanced payments for the war, largely disappeared by the end of 2023 with Russia circumventing the oil price cap (and related sanctions) and raking in significant income from commodities. It is expected that the U.S. and Europe will try to introduce new sanctions (and tighten existing ones) thus the focus will be on how Russia adapts to the changing economic environment. Russia (alongside other OPEC+ members) will continue to be a big driver of commodity prices.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Germany</strong></h2>



<p><em>Chancellor Scholz has to manage expectations at home and within the EU…</em></p>



<p>Germany did not have the best 2023. The country has been beset by a downturn in global demand, energy woes, and an unexpected court decision striking down a big part of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s budget – the federal constitutional court ruled that €60bn allocated to the German climate transformation fund was illegal. Scholz is focused on supporting the German economy (especially via energy investments) and supporting Ukraine against Russia but faces structural and financial limitations with both causes. He accordingly will have to right-size German ambitions to match available funding while not getting too distracted by European Parliament elections in June.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Mexico</strong></h2>



<p><em>Nearshoring, immigration, border security, and a presidential election…tough mix?</em></p>



<p>Mexico is a political and economic conundrum. The country has benefited from “friend-shoring” and the changing dynamics between the U.S. and China with Mexico passing China as the U.S.’s top trading partner. Even if relations improve between the U.S. and China, U.S. officials (irrespective of president) will likely continue to focus on shifting business to countries that are politically aligned and geographically close to the U.S. Mexico (and Canada) remain in the pole position to benefit under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which was the trade agreement that replaced NAFTA in 2020. Yet, Mexico and the U.S. struggle to resolve issues on immigration and border security. A Mexican election in June (and American election in November) introduces political uncertainty into the equation. For now, in Mexico, the ruling party candidate Claudi Sheinbaum is expected to win with some analysts predicting (or hoping) that she may be easier to work with than the current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Brazil</strong></h2>



<p><em>Lula is in the driving seat with commodity prices again funding Brazilian ambition…</em></p>



<p>Brazil is another country that has quietly benefited from the “new” U.S. and China dynamic alongside the war in Ukraine and now turmoil in the Middle East. Booming commodity prices was a gift to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in his return to the presidential office at the start of 2023. The numbers should continue to benefit trade and bolster Brazilian coffers under Lula’s more state controlled economic model – the bigger uncertainty centers on how Lula and Brazil utilize the “good times.” Lula always has big ambitions and will likely leverage political capital, such as the G20 Presidency in 2024 and an expanded BRICS group, to elevate Brazil’s standing on the global stage. Lula also needs to prepare the country for COP30 in 2025…he will be courting investors for the next 18 months.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Chile</strong></h2>



<p><em>Does Chilean rate cuts set a precedent for the rest of Latin America?</em> </p>



<p>Chile will continue rate reductions in 2024, after announcing a 75-basis point cut in December last year and signaling another cut by the end of January this year. The quick pace of easing in 2024 should be welcomed by Chileans as domestic demand lags and unemployment remains high – Chilean officials saw growth stagnate last year but expect growth to be above 2% this year. If policymakers can achieve their 3% inflation target, it is expected other countries in Latin America will try to emulate the Chilean approach. So far so good as inflation continues downward…President Gabriel Boric would appreciate the positive news after a couple failed attempts to rewrite the constitution.</p>



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		<title>Foreign Policy Re-Think Ahead of the Presidential Election Cycle: U.S. Top 5 Strategic Allies Going into 2024</title>
		<link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/foreign-policy-re-think-ahead-of-the-presidential-election-cycle-u-s-top-5-strategic-allies-going-into-2024-japan-saudi-arabia-france-germany-australia/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=foreign-policy-re-think-ahead-of-the-presidential-election-cycle-u-s-top-5-strategic-allies-going-into-2024-japan-saudi-arabia-france-germany-australia</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Dec 2023 11:38:27 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East / Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Albanese]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=761</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Whether an internationalist or isolationist approach, there are some alliances that will be strategically vital with five countries being at the top of that list...]]></description>
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<figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="512" height="330" src="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/military-photo-6-11-12-NATO-Riga-flags.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-762" style="width:810px;height:auto" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/military-photo-6-11-12-NATO-Riga-flags.jpg 512w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/military-photo-6-11-12-NATO-Riga-flags-300x193.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px" /></figure></div>


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<h4 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-center"><strong style="font-style: italic;"><strong style="font-style: italic;">&#8230;</strong><em>Whether an internationalist or isolationist approach, there are some alliances that will be strategically vital…</em></strong></h4>



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<p>President Obama, in 2011, once declared that “We don&#8217;t have a stronger friend and stronger ally than Nicolas Sarkozy, and the French people.”</p>



<p>The quote delighted the French and irked the British with some Americans also bewildered by the comments.</p>



<p>Nile Gardiner, Director of the Margaret Thatcher Centre for Freedom at the Heritage Foundation think-tank, responded at the time: “Quite what the French have done to merit this kind of high praise from the U.S. President is difficult to fathom […] to suggest that Paris and not London is Washington’s strongest partner is simply ludicrous.”</p>



<p>More than a decade since President Obama’s comments, several allies have been declared in various ways to be America’s ‘best ally’ or ‘strongest friend’ by subsequent presidents. The reality is the U.K. and Canada may be our most consistent and strongest allies, but the changing dynamics of military and economic power on a global stage through the decades require the U.S. to constantly rethink its alliances.</p>



<p>The constant rethink raises the usual debate between internationalism and isolationism, which is already playing out in the Republican primary and will flow into the presidential debates in 2024. Regardless of perspective, the U.S. will need allies – even if transactional – with the following five countries being the most strategically&nbsp;vital to any American foreign policy in today’s world.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Japan</strong></h2>



<p><em>Japan could be to the U.S. in the 21st century what the U.K. was to the U.S. in the U.K. in 20<sup>th</sup>&nbsp;century…</em></p>



<p>Japan’s importance to the U.S. today rivals the importance of the U.K. in the 20<sup>th</sup>&nbsp;century. First, the U.S. and Japan are the #1 and #3 largest economies in the world. Secondly, Japanese military spending, including for longer-range missiles that can strike targets in China or North Korea, is expected to double over the next five years. Japan continues to support Ukraine and has sanctioned Russia while also increasing Japanese military presence on the islands closest to Taiwan. These stances, especially those acts hostile to China, altogether break from the more subtle approach (or “self-constraint”) normally demonstrated by Japan for much of the post-World War II period.</p>



<p>Third, Japan was a driving force for the revival of the Quad, a four-way partnership involving Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S., which helped the U.S. regain some influence in the region (after dropping out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) under former President Donald Trump) and avoid what former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe described as an impending formation of “Lake Beijing.”&nbsp;</p>



<p>Most importantly, Japan and South Korea have sought to bury the hatchet as part of the Pacific trilateral discussions with the U.S. If Japan continues to strengthen its military and defense capabilities, stabilize and grow its economy, and become the formidable counterbalance to China for the U.S. (while working alongside other Indo-Pacific partners), then it may be to Asia what the U.K. was to Europe in the 20th centuries in more ways than the U.S. could have imagined decades ago.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Australia</strong></h2>



<p><em>Australia is an underrated and underappreciated ally for the U.S…</em></p>



<p>Secretary of State Anthony Blinken recently declared “We [America] have no greater friend, no greater partner, no greater ally than Australia&#8221; – as we have seen, American political leaders can be promiscuous with this type of language. Nonetheless, Secretary Blinken is not wrong to emphasize the importance of Australia as the U.S.-Australian alliance is the foundation of U.S. Indo-Pacific policy. The U.S. protects its biggest non-NATO ally, not because of its massive population (approximately 27 million) but rather because of shared beliefs in democracy and freedom, while Australia aligns with the U.S. on security and balance of power issues. Proponents of the alliance have long argued that Australia can rely on the American extended nuclear deterrence, which is a concept that the U.S. would protect Australia with nuclear weapons if the country is threatened or faces a nuclear attack.</p>



<p>It was not so long ago that the debates in Canberra were centered on Washington’s commitment to Asia and its ability to address both the economic and national security challenges of the region. Yet, China’s rise and American focus on Taiwan has created another meeting of the minds (similarly seen with the U.S. and Japan). Today, polling, according to The Economist, shows 87% of Australians support the U.S. Australian alliance despite 77% of Australians believing the alliance will likely draw Australia into a war not in Australian interest. You likely cannot find a similar poll on any other U.S. alliance. To be fair, Australia sent its troops to fight alongside the Americans in Korea, Vietnam, the Gulf War, Afghanistan, and Iraq, and the country hosts the U.S. marines…many Americans have little knowledge of this history.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Australia’s bilateral security arrangements with Japan are vital to the shared interests of the Quad. Australia has also been a driving force (alongside Japan) in the “new Quad”, a four-way partnership involving Australia, Japan, Philippines, and the U.S, with the new Quad again being a clear reminder that there is no Indo Pacific policy without Australia (and Japan).</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Germany</strong></h2>



<p><em>Has the war in Ukraine forever changed Germany?</em></p>



<p>The U.S. requires a partner in Europe. For years, it was unthinkable to imagine any relationship in Europe being more important than the U.K. But a lot has changed the dynamics in Europe – for example, Brexit, economic struggles in the U.K, and former President Obama’s perceived preference for other European allies (such as Germany and France) among other things. Brexit weakened the British influence in Europe while its weakened economic stance in recent years hampers its leverage on an international stage. But let’s not ponder why the U.K. is not the preferred &#8216;strategic&#8217;&nbsp;partner and try to focus on why Germany should be.</p>



<p>German chancellor Olaf Scholz is not Angela Merkel (who former President Obama appeared to appreciate and former President Trump appeared to find frustrating) which is perfectly okay. Scholz has focused Germany on meeting the 2% NATO spending threshold for his budget and has been supportive of American and European efforts in Ukraine via weapons and money. Through a series of legislation on Ukraine, energy, and trade, he has fundamentally shifted German foreign policy and squashed the narratives of Germany “free riding” on U.S. defense spending and Germany playing a selfish game of economic footsie with Russia and China.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Today, Germany is working alongside France to create a more forceful and responsive European Union with German troops likely to be deployed on the eastern front of Europe as deterrence to Russia. Scholz’s governing alliance faces challenges from extremists in German politics at home, but that is a growing concern for most of Europe. Merkel and Scholz, if anything, are showing the dynamism of German politics and its increasing ability to meet the challenges of a changing Europe.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Saudi Arabia</strong></h2>



<p><em>Can the U.S. and Saudi Arabia find the right trade-off between oil, nuclear energy, and security (among a few other things)?</em></p>



<p>The fist bump seen around the world has not exactly healed all wounds. The Biden administration is still working to convert the Biden-MBS rendezvous in the desert into actual results. A monumental normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel (underwritten by U.S. security guarantees, promises of nuclear energy, and some agreement on oil) remains the ultimate goal, but it sits on the backburner until the war in Gaza comes to an end with a solution that appeases both the desires of Saudi Arabia and Israel (with the U.S. also likely playing some form of a mediation role).</p>



<p>Critics argue that the normalization deal is a manifestation of today’s transactional relationship between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. with both countries struggling to find mutual geopolitical interest over time – the “oil for security” agreement (which also sounds transactional) slowly died with the shale revolution in the U.S. and former President Obama’s vow to focus on Asia. Former President Trump, if anything, strategically leveraged the transactional nature of the relationship in his foreign policy, which initially resonated in Saudi Arabia (and the United Arab Emirates). It was Iranian drone attacks on maritime and energy targets in Saudi Arabia in 2019 (and threats against Dubai and Abu Dhabi) coupled with increasing Iranian demonstrations of power via drone sales to Russia (to be used in Ukraine) and proxy militias (in Lebanon and Yemen) that reminded Saudi Arabia and the U.S. that Middle East security cooperation is vital.</p>



<p>A coordinated approach on oil and energy transition will remain a focus item in the immediate future. Saudi Arabia will be focused on navigating the recent Cop 28 deal on reducing fossil fuels while all U.S. presidents know Americans hate high gas prices (and punishes presidents at the polls for such prices). Other priority issues, including Gaza and Ukraine, obviously require collaboration. The biggest change in this relationship, however, may simply be the U.S. accepting (and respecting) the arrival of Saudi Arabia onto the global stage in energy, international policy, and sports among various other things.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>France</strong></h2>



<p><em>France is the U.S.&#8217;s oldest ally…</em></p>



<p>Benjamin Franklin travelled to Paris in 1776 to establish an alliance with France and the rest is history with France providing supplies, weapons, and military support to the U.S. in its fight for independence. France has fought alongside the U.S. in world wars, Korea, Afghanistan, and Iraq. It is no secret that some of those wars created rough times for the French-American relationship yet the French have been a loyal partner. </p>



<p>France is also still very proactive in the Indo-Pacific alongside the U.S. despite the loss of a major submarine deal with Australia in 2021 to the U.S. (a deal viewed by France as a backstab by both the U.S and Australia).&nbsp;France continues to discuss arms sales with countries, like India and Malaysia, with aspirations to fill a space likely to be created by Russia if the war in Ukraine continues and weapons sales by Russian have to be scrapped in favor of redirecting arms to support their efforts in Ukraine.&nbsp; French President Emmanuel Macron also recently signed a law affirming that France would protect the freedom of the Taiwan Strait and has&nbsp;sent delegations&nbsp;to Taiwan to&nbsp;fortify that relationship. Both acts coupled with French engagement with Japan (and a&nbsp;reconciliation&nbsp;with Australia) makes France a strategic ally to the U.S. in Asia. Lastly, once Macron gave up on the potential for a Nobel Peace Prize and stopped calling Russian President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine, he aligned with Germany on creating a stronger and independent European Union. &#8220;Independent&#8221;&nbsp;may sound like a pushback&nbsp;against the&nbsp;U.S., but French actions suggest the France-U.S. bond can last for many more decades.</p>



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		<title>The Balance of ‘Enduring Partnerships’ vs. ‘Transactional Relationships’</title>
		<link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/the-balance-of-enduring-partnerships-vs-transactional-relationships-trump-biden-india-saudi-arabia-china-russia-dcjournal/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=the-balance-of-enduring-partnerships-vs-transactional-relationships-trump-biden-india-saudi-arabia-china-russia-dcjournal</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Dec 2023 07:21:41 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East / Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Donald Trump]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Biden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Major non-Nato ally status]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MNNA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mohammed bin Salman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Narendra Modi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NATO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OAS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Organization of American States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RUssia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Saudi Arabia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=754</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[While there are some long-standing partnerships that continue to endure through time, U.S. politicians will have to become more accustomed to the transactional nature of international diplomacy...]]></description>
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<figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="300" height="300" src="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/US-Relationships-and-Partnerships.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-755" style="width:676px;height:auto" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/US-Relationships-and-Partnerships.jpg 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/US-Relationships-and-Partnerships-150x150.jpg 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Flags of Members of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)</figcaption></figure></div>


<p><strong><em>This was originally published by </em></strong><a href="https://dcjournal.com/the-balance-of-enduring-partnerships-vs-transactional-relationships/" data-type="link" data-id="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4306629-saudi-arabia-wants-the-indian-premier-league-why-is-there-no-discussion-of-sportswashing/"><em>DC Journal</em></a><strong><em><a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4306629-saudi-arabia-wants-the-indian-premier-league-why-is-there-no-discussion-of-sportswashing/" data-type="link" data-id="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4306629-saudi-arabia-wants-the-indian-premier-league-why-is-there-no-discussion-of-sportswashing/">.</a></em></strong></p>



<p>Former president Donald Trump’s foreign policy was once panned as “transactional.”</p>



<p>President Biden, when speaking at the virtual Munich Security Conference in 2021, stated that “our partnerships have endured and grown through the years because they are rooted in the richness of our shared democratic values. They’re not transactional.”</p>



<p>Maybe they both are right. There are some long-standing partnerships that continue to endure through time. The United Kingdom and the United States, France and the United States, Canada and the United States are several to name a few.</p>



<p>Nonetheless, many political marriages are transactional (we are referring to countries here, not individuals).</p>



<p>U.S. politicians will have to become more accustomed to the transactional nature of international diplomacy.</p>



<p>Yes … security alliances and pacts, especially when discussing troop deployments, require more than transactional engagement. If the United States and Israel did not have a long-standing partnership, then American troops would not have been deployed to the Middle East to prevent a broadening of the current conflict in Gaza.</p>



<p>That similar support, however, will not unquestionably be afforded to other countries.</p>



<p>Take the recent agreements with India and Saudi Arabia, where alliances make sense but are transactional as the U.S. treatment of each country and vice versa still has a sense of hesitancy or suspicion.</p>



<p>India’s engagement with the United States has been described by the Biden administration as the emergence of a new strategic partner in Asia. But the reality suggests this is less a marriage of the minds but an agreement on price.</p>



<p>There may be no other country that has done more (other than maybe China) to shore up Russia’s economy among economic sanctions than India’s oil-guzzling economy with its copious Russian oil purchases. If Biden made a call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, you can imagine him saying China and India have done everything to buoy Russian oil revenues. Yet, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi joined a short list of foreign leaders to address a joint session of Congress — a list that includes Nelson Mandela, Winston Churchill and Volodymyr Zelensky.</p>



<p>Biden is not wrong for turning his attention to India. It is the world’s fifth-largest economy with its GDP expected to overtake Japan and Germany by 2028. The Indian population has exploded and overtaken China while the economic war game of friend-shoring (the act of manufacturing and sourcing from countries that are geopolitical allies) both simultaneously forces American companies to explore options for production outside China (such as India) and the U.S. government to ensure it has a good understanding of who are its true allies.</p>



<p>Taken from a view that China is its ultimate competition, the Biden administration is happy to cozy up to India with a series of defense cooperation deals, especially as India faces border skirmishes with Chinese troops. Nonetheless, the current form of Indian populism and politics remains suspicious of Western countries — not simply the United States but also look at the tough relationship with Canada.</p>



<p>India, like China, is focused on global power and is not accepting the U.S. claim to global leadership. Weapons deals and defense cooperation may theoretically shore up U.S.-Indian relations, but it would be a mistake to think it is not simply transactional. American weapons today do not necessarily negate Russian oil tomorrow. The United States also has a good example of how playing nice blindly can backfire — China was once the dance partner with the United States until the music stopped.</p>



<p>Following the Abraham Accords negotiated by the Trump administration, Biden, as a candidate, vowed to punish Saudi Arabia for the killing of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. He labeled the kingdom as a “pariah’ that should be pushed to the side. Then came Biden’s trip to the kingdom less than two years into his presidency where he gave an awkward fist bump to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The fist bump was not a COVID-driven health measure for greetings but rather an unceremonious admission of defeat by the anti-Saudi Arabia hardliners in the administration.</p>



<p>As Biden quickly learned (or was reminded) in his first year, Americans hate inflation, especially at the gas pump. Second, the desire to slow U.S. exploration and production of oil (arguably at a pace that new energies have not been able to match) puts the American economy at the mercy of global oil prices in which Saudi Arabia plays a major role. Saudi Arabia, since that awkward meeting of Biden and MBS, has continued to coordinate production cuts with OPEC+ members, including Russia.</p>



<p>Now (or at least before the Israeli-Hamas war started) the United States is at the center of a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal that includes a long list of interests and preconditions. As a sign of&nbsp;<em>deep&nbsp;</em>commitment to the Abraham Accords, the United States is prepared to sign up to a security pact with Saudi Arabia and provide a civilian nuclear program. Both have some conditions … though, even with conditions, such an agreement by the United States automatically disperses with any talk of Saudi Arabia as a “pariah.”&nbsp;</p>



<p>Saudi Arabia would agree to stop sensitive transactions with China, work to resolve the conflict in Yemen, and align more with U.S. interests, including on economic issues like oil production and prices. Israel would benefit from wider political and economic integration with Arab countries in exchange for cooperating with Saudi Arabia on Iran deterrence (likely a mutual benefit to each country) and concessions to the Palestinians (which will likely require further negotiation and understanding after the recent war in Gaza).</p>



<p>This type of deal can only be described as a transactional — mutually aligned success or failure as a deal. The United States reportedly will manage the civilian nuclear plant and have special carve-outs on the security pact. This is clearly not a marriage of equally yoked partners but rather the epitome of a contract that remains as viable as its partners getting along daily and making it work — nothing more transactional than reassessing your friendship on a monthly or yearly basis.</p>



<p>Many U.S. relationships date back to the end of the Second World War — such that former U.S. Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick, when looking at the end of the Cold War, once wrote “most of the international military obligations that we assumed were once important are now outdated.” The United States remains a partner to many countries via North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the Organization of American States and Major non-Nato ally (MNNA) status.</p>



<p>NATO, an intergovernmental military alliance established in the aftermath of World War II, is a partnership that has “endured and grown through the years” and is “transactional” — Trump among others felt the United States was funding an organization that it did not exactly receive equal benefits from with Trump suggesting the United States could go into “standby” mode and potentially exit NATO. Then the war in Ukraine broke out, and European members started spending more to aid Ukraine.</p>



<p>Under MNNA status, 18 countries have the right to enter into contracts with the U.S. military (in many instances similar to NATO countries). Those 18 countries are Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Qatar, South Korea, Thailand and Tunisia. A few of those countries, including Egypt, Israel, and Jordan, receive significant foreign aid from the United States with the aid to all three relationships heavily criticized, even in the last few weeks with some in the Congress suggesting pausing aid to Egypt until the resolution of charges against Sen. Robert Menendez.</p>



<p>The relationships with Brazil and Colombia fluctuate in strength based on who occupies the presidency — Jair Bolsonaro (now out of Brazilian presidential office as of the start of the year) and Gustabo Petro (president of Colombia since August 2022) are not Biden’s type of strategic partners. With Pakistan, the United States conducted a mission deep inside Pakistan to kill Osama bin Laden without informing Islamabad ahead of the mission (the United States claims there was a standing warning that it would send operatives if there was evidence of bin Laden being in the country) — Pakistani polling thereafter showed distrust of the United States and has never really changed. In short, critiquing the MNNA list is not hard because, in most instances, most observers would describe U.S. relationships with all the members to be a balance between partnership and transactional.</p>



<p>Critics will continue to argue (and rightfully so in some cases) that the United States is funding security where certain countries are not equally (or proportionately depending on how the agreement is structured) matching their obligations. The push by many within the American security apparatus and within policy circles to encourage equal burden-sharing and more transactional engagement may simply be a recognition of the American public’s pushback on the funding of many multilateral organizations and a feeling of less than fair return on investment.</p>



<p>Many married couples know that every relationship is not 50/50 in general or on most days, but 80/20 or (something near that) every day will usually create strain. Now imagine that type of engagement between two countries who are not necessarily lovers but simple situational friends.</p>



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		<title>Saudi Arabia wants the Indian Premier League: Why Is There No Discussion of ‘Sportswashing’?</title>
		<link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/saudi-arabia-wants-the-indian-premier-league-why-is-there-no-discussion-of-sportswashing/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=saudi-arabia-wants-the-indian-premier-league-why-is-there-no-discussion-of-sportswashing</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Nov 2023 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East / Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cristiano Ronaldo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Indian Premier League]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Karim Benzema]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LIV Golf]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mohammed bin Salman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Public Investment Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Saudi Arabia]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=840</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Saudi Arabia's reported interest in the Indian Premier League has not raised any significant discussion of "sportwashing"...Why is that the case?]]></description>
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<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="960" height="540" src="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Saudi-Arabia-India.webp" alt="" class="wp-image-748" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Saudi-Arabia-India.webp 960w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Saudi-Arabia-India-300x169.webp 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Saudi-Arabia-India-768x432.webp 768w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Saudi-Arabia-India-750x422.webp 750w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">(Photo Credit: Leon Neal/Pool Photo via AP)</figcaption></figure></div>


<p class=""><strong><em>This was originally published by <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4306629-saudi-arabia-wants-the-indian-premier-league-why-is-there-no-discussion-of-sportswashing/" data-type="link" data-id="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4306629-saudi-arabia-wants-the-indian-premier-league-why-is-there-no-discussion-of-sportswashing/">The Hill.</a></em></strong></p>



<p class="">Saudi Arabia Crown Prince&nbsp;Mohammed bin Salman&nbsp;previously said he does not care about allegations of “sportswashing” against his country, and that he would continue investing in sports if it adds to his country’s gross domestic product.</p>



<p class="">Saudi Arabia’s recent expression of interest in buying a $5 billion stake in cricket’s Indian Premier League (IPL), with a plan to place the IPL in a holding company worth up to $30 billion, only reinforces bin Salman’s seriousness about investing in sports. Saudi officials reportedly see an opportunity to massively expand the league presence internationally, including within the kingdom, similar to the English Premier League or the European Champions League.</p>



<p class="">Allegations of “sportswashing,” in this situation — of using sports to burnish a nation’s dodgy reputation — haven’t been aggressively levelled against the kingdom, a stark contrast to the&nbsp;LIV Golf situation&nbsp;or the contracts for&nbsp;soccer stars Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, who both now play for Saudi football teams.</p>



<p class="">The rather quiet response from western politicians is telling of several things as they relate to Saudi Arabia on the global stage.</p>



<p class="">First, sportswashing can be a lazy rebuttal to the kingdom’s investment in sports and, in general, the Middle East. The definition of “sportswashing,” which is the practice of using sports to improve reputation, can be rather expansive in practice. Yes, we can all agree Qatar hosted the 2022 World Cup to elevate the reputation of the country. So did Brazil with the 2016 Summer Olympics and South Africa with the 2010 World Cup and so will countries in the future.&nbsp;</p>



<p class="">Saudi officials clearly know that sports can bring good attention to a country. (The Ministry of Culture has&nbsp;<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2369066/saudi-sport" target="_blank">a nice selfie on Instagram</a>&nbsp;from NBA great Lebron James’s visit during September this year…yes Lebron James was in Saudi Arabia.) That said, it is not the sole reason for investing in sports, but it is obviously low-hanging fruit for politicians, because it will always contain some truth.</p>



<p class="">Saudi Arabia is moving at a fast pace to change the country, and it has deep pockets to do so. Critics will note that women weren’t allowed to vote until 2011 and could not independently access health care and education without male supervision until 2017. Women also could not drive until 2018. For context, bin Salman began his rise to power in 2013, when he was named head of the Crown Prince’s Court with the rank of minister. He would be named crown prince in June 2017, when King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud deposed Muhammad bin Nayef.</p>



<p class="">Since bin Salman has become crown prince, the country has hosted major boxing matches (such Anthony Joshua versus Andy Ruiz in 2019), launched LIV Golf in 2021 (which by 2023 was merged with the PGA tour) and took over Newcastle United in 2021. Additionally, Saudi football club Al-Nassr welcomed Ronaldo to the team at the start of this year, and, last month Riyadh was host to a boxing match between Tyson Fury and Francis Ngannou (with stars such as Kanye West and Mike Tyson in attendance) as a kickoff to Riyadh Season, which is a major festival where the city will host a series of huge shows and spectacles alongside a series of sporting events.</p>



<p class="">Most of the Saudi sovereign deals have been executed via the country’s Public Investment Fund, which has reportedly made overtures in recent years to buy the WWE and Formula One. An investment in the IPL by the Public Investment Fund (or another entity) would fit well with the Saudis’ other sports investments — the IPL, for example, received sponsor bids up $6.2 billion for the right to broadcast games through 2027, which equates roughly to $15 million per match in a sport where the season lasts eight weeks.</p>



<p class="">The per-match number is more than the English Premier League and slightly behind the $17 million per game for the National Football League in the U.S. Let’s also not forget that the kingdom has a significant Indian population between 10 and 12 percent who will be happy to have more access to IPL games.</p>



<p class="">The push by Saudi Arabia (and other non-Western countries) into sports is fueling a “West versus everyone else” type of narrative. The quiet response to the reported offer for IPL versus the stir caused by LIV Golf (in competition with the PGA) suggests two different responses for deals done in the East versus deals done in the West. The PGA is sacred in the U.S. The IPL is unknown to Americans, so there are no political points to be gained by pushing back against this deal.</p>



<p class="">However, the Qatar Investment Authority, Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, has also surprisingly faced little pushback for its estimated $200 million investment&nbsp;in Leonsis’s Monumental Sports, which controls the NBA’s Washington Wizards, the NHL’s Washington Capitals and the WNBA’s Washington Mystics. Qatar’s is the first sovereign fund to purchase a stake in a team in the top four U.S. sports leagues. (MLS club New York City FC is majority-controlled by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan, a member of the royal family of Abu Dhabi.)</p>



<p class="">Skeptics will say Qatar is becoming an important ally to the U.S., so there is little political upside to criticizing this deal. (For example, Qatar is the go-between with Hamas for Israel and the U.S.)</p>



<p class="">Countries accused of sportswashing are largely non-western countries, such as Qatar with the 2022 World Cup and China with the 2022 Winter Olympics. Was the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics an example of sportswashing? Or, how do we distinguish between the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics and the 2022 Winter Olympics in this conversation? Are both examples of sportswashing, or only the 2022 games? </p>



<p class="">Historians can reference the 1934 World Cup in Mussolini’s Italy and the 1936 Olympic Games in Nazi Germany, but that retroactive application of sportswashing ignores how little the language of sportswashing was used before the 2000s (or even 2010s). One can even argue that Hitler hosted the Olympics in 1936 to prove the superiority of the “pure German” race over any other race, only to have black American athlete Jesse Owens star in the games.&nbsp;Eighteen black athletes would participate in those 1936 games (and elevate the prominence of the U.S.) only to be forgotten and dismissed upon their return home to the U.S. That time in history was more about proving superiority of countries and races than it was about sportswashing. Regardless, Saudi Arabia is not Nazi Germany or Mussolini’s Italy and nor does not have the U.S. 1936 racial issues.</p>



<p class="">Furthermore, the West as the arbitrator of who is sportswashing based on human rights has generally permitted those best allied to the West to escape criticism more than those less allied to the U.S. This positioning of countries on a theoretical human rights spectrum obfuscates the conversation on sportswashing by masking over the behaviors of certain countries versus others to maintain Western moral superiority. The discussion in this fashion also muddies the waters by ignoring any complicity of other countries in alleged human rights violations.</p>



<p class="">Indeed, it may be better to ask why we should care if any country is sportswashing. Individuals and countries can boycott “problem” countries by avoiding travel to those countries, not participating in certain games or sports in those countries, or cutting aid and investment within those countries, if they feel obliged to do so. </p>



<p class="">Sports organizers and leaders, for their part, may simply want to avoid being dragged into each political or cultural debate. Sports are the best uniters of societies and culture — we can see this across American&nbsp;racial lines and South African racial lines as well as different religions groups in the Middle East and Asia.</p>



<p class="">Maybe the 2026 World Cup, collectively hosted by Canada, the United States, and Mexico, can solve all the border issues between the three countries. Even the most optimistic person is somewhat pessimistic about this outcome. But, if the games run smoothly, could Mexico accuse the U.S. of sportswashing, or vice versa?</p>



<p class="">Lastly, it looks like Saudi Arabia will host the 2034 World Cup, as it was the sole bidder). To call it sportswashing in 2034 will sound odd in a historic context — that would suggest bin Salman is genius for planning 11 years ahead on another cover-up.&nbsp;</p>



<p class="">We could celebrate the 2034 World Cup like the IPL interest (and hopefully bid) as a demonstration of the quick economic growth and elevation of Saudi Arabia to the global stage. That does not have to be a bad thing for other countries, or a threat to them.</p>



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		<title>Niger Is A Reminder That the War in Ukraine Is Not About a Fight for Democracy</title>
		<link>https://kurtdavisjr.com/niger-is-a-reminder-that-the-war-in-ukraine-is-not-about-a-fight-for-democracy-dcjournal/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=niger-is-a-reminder-that-the-war-in-ukraine-is-not-about-a-fight-for-democracy-dcjournal</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kurt L. Davis Jr.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Aug 2023 14:24:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Democracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emmanuel Macron]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mali]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Niger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nigeria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RUssia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ukraine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wagner Group]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://kurtdavisjr.com/?p=743</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The latest sequence of events in Niger is a reminder that the war in Ukraine (and sanctions against Russia) is not about a fight for democracy...]]></description>
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<figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="300" height="300" src="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Niger.webp" alt="" class="wp-image-744" style="width:578px;height:578px" srcset="https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Niger.webp 300w, https://kurtdavisjr.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Niger-150x150.webp 150w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">General Abdourahamane Tiani</figcaption></figure></div>


<p><strong><em>This originally appeared on <a href="https://dcjournal.com/niger-is-a-reminder-that-the-war-in-ukraine-is-not-about-a-fight-for-democracy/" data-type="link" data-id="https://dcjournal.com/niger-is-a-reminder-that-the-war-in-ukraine-is-not-about-a-fight-for-democracy/">DCJournal.com</a></em></strong></p>



<p>The latest sequence of events in Niger is a reminder that the war in Ukraine (and sanctions against Russia) is not about a fight for democracy.</p>



<p>The takeover in Niger by soldiers belonging to the presidential guard is the latest in a string of coups in Africa that obviously challenge the concept of democracy. There were two successful coup attempts in Burkina Faso in 2022, alongside failed coup attempts in Gambia, Guinea Bissau, and Sao Tome and Principe.</p>



<p>There were six coup attempts in 2021, of which four —in Chad, Guinea, Mali and Sudan — were successful.</p>



<p>African Union officials and some neighboring governments have expressed concern. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, with barely two months on the job, had taken the lead on forging regional efforts via the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to free detained president Mohamed Bazoum and reinstate the democratically elected Nigerien government.</p>



<p>Yet, he gave an ultimatum to the governing junta in Niger — effectively step down or face ECOWAS troops — and ultimately caved when a majority of the Nigerian political spectrum opposed his efforts with supporters outside Nigeria speaking softly into the wind.</p>



<p>The United States and France each reportedly have 1,000-plus troops in Niger spread across multiple bases. The Americans also launch drones from Air Base 201 (known locally as “Base Americaine”). The country has been a vital counterterrorism partner in the Sahel for the American and French military.</p>



<p>Political leaders depict the Russian war with Ukraine as a battle between democracy and authoritarianism. The language from European leaders underlines this sense of urgency in the fight for democracy against the oppression of Russia.</p>



<p>Across the Atlantic, democracy is synonymous with freedom in American vocabulary, and the discourse in support of democracy instinctively stirs political and moral support from both sides of the aisle.</p>



<p>For many people, democracy is not equivalent to freedom. Many countries do not have a democracy, and local citizens and ex-pats are OK with that.</p>



<p>The war in Ukraine would theoretically be wrong in the eyes of European and Western leaders if Ukraine was not a democracy. The war should violate the same norms and seemingly draw in the same parties along their current lines.</p>



<p>The language of fighting for democracy further undermines efforts to expand the coalition of countries supporting a resolution to this conflict. Countries like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are not democracies, but they will be at the center of any potential solution to the Russian-Ukraine situation. (And let’s appreciate that the United States and Europe would defend the UAE and Saudi Arabia if they were invaded.)</p>



<p>Many diplomats (behind closed doors) will suggest that some countries lack the societal values (or will) compatible with sustaining a democracy. Some critics question the sustainability of American democracy amid the changes in its society and growing polarization.</p>



<p>This view helps to explain the world’s reluctance to intervene in the Sahel.</p>



<p>First, the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso received the standard “deeply concerned” messages from the United States and other parties with significant behind-the-scenes talks with the juntas. They did not spark the same potential for an invasion of foreign forces (regional or international) to reinstate the prior government.</p>



<p>Second, Niger matters more for Western diplomacy as President Bazoum was the friendly face in a tough neighborhood. Russia’s Wagner group is embedded in Chad, Libya and Mali, which border Niger, and potentially have a deal to assist neighboring Burkina Faso. If Niger accepts Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s offer to help the military junta secure the country, then the Sahel, in the eyes of the United States and France, would be lost to Russian influence. Furthermore, losing access to bases in Niger would undercut American and French efforts to fight ISIS in the Sahel.</p>



<p>Third, and most important, the rise of military coups doesn’t indicate a specific party as an enemy. There is no invasion of a “weaker” country by a “stronger” country (unless Nigeria dared to go at it alone to restore the Nigerien president to office, which President Tinubu has no intention of doing). The United States and France are equally aware of the bad public relations and imagery that any invasion by either country alone or in a coalition would create in the region.</p>



<p>Furthermore, sending troops for Bazoum would only generate questions and criticism. Why were troops not sent to reinstate President Kabore in Burkina Faso in 2022 or during the multiple coups in Mali in the last 10 years?</p>



<p>American presidents have learned the hard way that a fight for democracy will draw you into conflicts that you may want to avoid. A few presidents probably would acknowledge that the American version of democracy was a poorly tailored suit for some societies.</p>



<p>The war in Ukraine and the attempted coups in the Sahel will unlikely end tomorrow. Those opposed to these conflicts must reconsider the narrative and values underpinning Western efforts in each scenario to create better congruence around responses (in other words, improved coalition building) and avoid being stuck in wars without exit plans (Afghanistan).</p>



<p>Democracy can be a binding value. Freedom has sticking power … but freedom to what extent? Stopping oppression is too broad as oppression is too loosely employed in American political speech.</p>



<p>Stopping the invasion of one country by another is clearly something to support. How much further should our values extend beyond that? Should we be bothered by coup attempts in every country? Or only a specific set of countries? Or should our concern be transactional … i.e., how does this affect my country?</p>



<p>That is the bigger unknown with Niger and similar situations. Building a coalition of partners requires binding principles and a narrative behind their importance.</p>



<p>Purely saving democracy or elected leaders is not an all-encompassing principle for responding to a conflict, including that every country is not a democracy.</p>



<p>We are stuck with a question raised at the recent ECOWAS meetings: What would ECOWAS (and the world) do if a coup happened in democratic Nigeria or Cote d’Ivoire tomorrow? Sit idle, send troops, or …?</p>



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